CONCENTRIC CIRCLES APPROACH TO FOREIGN POLICY MAKING AND ANALYSIS: AN EXPLORATORY ESSAY

CONCENTRIC CIRCLES APPROACH TO FOREIGN POLICY MAKING AND ANALYSIS: AN EXPLORATORY ESSAY

                                              BY

ADELUSI.O.P (PhD),

ABSTRACT

This chapter is an exploratory study of the importance of concentric circles approach in policy making and analysis. It established the premise that concentric circles theory has been applied by scholars in Foreign policy analysis and by some governments in foreign policy making. Attempt has been made to examine such instances. Among the findings arrived at are that the application of this theory facilitates a quick comprehension of the main axis of the foreign policy of such State being analyzed; it also underlie the importance that such a State attaches to the specified area of interest. The study concludes that the concentric circles theory is apt to the study of foreign policy analysis which is a major study area in international relations. To undertake this task, the chapter has been divided into four parts; namely, the Introduction, followed by the conceptual clarification of the main concepts in the theory, while the third part examines the case studies of the application of the theory in foreign policy making and analysis. Conclusion sums up the study in the fourth part.

I-                INTRODUCTION

Concentric Circles theory has come to stay in socio-economic analysis. When the Sociologist Ernest Burgess first proposed the Concentric Circle Theory in 1925. Http://www.ehow.com/   Little did he know that his theory which was among the first to explain urban social structure and its evolution will expand to other aspects socio-economic environment. One notable benefit of this theory at its inception was that the theory was the first to explain that urban structures arose naturally, without planning. Subsequent developments have made the theory applicable in diverse areas of study.

This chapter is an exploratory study of the importance of concentric circles approach in policy making and analysis. It established the premise that concentric circles theory has been applied by scholars in Foreign policy analysis and by some governments in foreign policy making. Attempt has been made to examine such instances. Among the findings arrived at are that the application of this theory facilitates a quick comprehension of the main axis of the foreign policy of such State being analyzed; it also underlie the importance that such a State attaches to the specified area of interest.

The study concludes that the concentric circles theory is apt to the study of foreign policy analysis which is a major study area in international relations. To undertake this task, the chapter has been divided into four parts; namely, the Introduction, followed by the conceptual clarification of the main concepts in the theory, while the third part examines the case studies of the application of the theory in foreign policy making and analysis. Conclusion sums up the study in the fourth part.

II-             CONCEPTUAL CLARIFICATION OF THE MAIN CONCEPTS IN THE THEORY

The important question under this section is what are concentric circles? Many answers come handy here. Concentric circles are circles that form within each other around a common point. An example of a concentric circle would be the ripples you see if you throw a small stone into a body of still water. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ConcentricCircles.html .

Another definition has it that concentric circles are circles that share the same center, axis, or origin with one inside the other. A good example of concentric circles is the Olympics logo.  http://answers.ask.com/Science/Mathematics/

When circles are said to be concentric it means that they have the same center point. Concentric circles look like rings around a specific point.

The second most important question then is what is Concentric Circles theory? According to Willow Wisp, ehow Contributor, Http://www.ehow.com/, Concentric Circles Theory, one of the earliest in sociology, predicts that urban social structures develop in concentric circles about a city's center. Applying this theory, city planners, corporations and even individuals can better use a city's resources.

History has it that Sociologist Ernest Burgess first proposed the Concentric Circles Theory in 1925. Http://www.ehow.com/ and that his theory was among the first to explain urban social structure and its evolution. Noting that concentric bands of similar land use seemed to arise without planning about the city center, Burgess argued that such growth could be forecast.

It is on record that while today newer theories better describe this evolution, this theory was the first to explain that these structures arose naturally, without planning. Http://www.ehow.com/

Elmo Roper developed Concentric Circles Theory with regards to Mass Communication. Under this theory, he posits that ideas penetrate to the whole public very slowly, and that ideas move out in concentric circles from the Great Thinkers, to Great Disciples, to Great Disseminators, to Lesser Disseminators, to Politically Actives, and finally to the Politically Inert.

III-            THE APPLICATION OF CONCENTRIC CIRCLES THEORY TO FOREIGN POLICY MAKING AND ANALYSIS.

Various attempts have been made to apply this Concentric Circles theory to Foreign Policy making and analysis. We need to take a cursory look at some of them:

Ibrahim A. Gambari (1989), asserts that;

“a country’s foreign policy revolves around its national interests. Nigeria is not and cannot be an exception to this. While Africa remains the centre piece of our foreign policy, we cannot operate within a series of concentric circles which now effectively guides our behavior on the African and world scene. The innermost of the circles of national interests involves Nigeria’s security- territorial integrity and political independence- and that of the neighbours of Nigeria.”

 Ojārs Kalniņš (2005), in examining Latvia’s National Development Plan 2014-2020, affirms that the Foreign Ministry deals with strengthening Latvia’s political and economic interests abroad. He adduced that since Latvia’s Foreign Service cannot embrace the entire world, so it is natural to divide that world into regions of priority.

Ojārs Kalniņš (2013), discusses those priorities of Latvia’s foreign policy, he has described as concentric circles of interest. He went ahead to identify six such circles. The first and closest circle includes our immediate neighbours: Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus and Russia. The second circle is slightly larger, and includes the Baltic Sea region and the Nordic countries. The third circle, where he placed the European Union and NATO. The fourth circle:  the EU’s Eastern Partnership; Fifth circle – Central Asia and Afghanistan, while the Sixth and last circle, is the Far East. For an elaborate discussion of this, “ and the purposes of the Latvian Parliament’s annual Foreign Policy Debates, he has chosen to isolate those priorities by segmenting Latvia’s foreign policy world into concentric circles of interest. He has identified six such circles.

The first and closest circle includes Latvia’s immediate neighbours: Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus and Russia. While relations with all these countries are important economically, they are much more complex and diverse politically. According to him they will remain a top priority in 2013. 

The second circle is slightly larger, and includes the Baltic Sea region and the Nordic countries. Here he posits that Latvia continues to develop good ties in such multi-lateral formats as NB8, the Nordic-Baltic Council and the Council of Baltic Sea States. This year Latvia hosts the Baltic Development Forum and in 2015 during Latvia’s Presidency of the European Union, she plans to organize a special forum on the EU’s Baltic Sea Strategy.

But in 2013 most of Latvia’s attention will be focused on the third circle, where a special place has been reserved for the European Union and NATO.  Both organizations expand Latvia’s areas of direct foreign engagement, although at the moment the greatest challenges lie in the EU itself, and Latvia’s place in it. As always, Latvia’s strategic partnership with the United States anchors her commitment to the transatlantic relationship.

This third circle also reveals the geographic direction of Latvia’s interest in the fourth circle:  the EU’s Eastern Partnership. Cooperating with and supporting such eastern neighbours as Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova has always been a priority for Latvia. Direct person-to-person ties in these countries dating back to pre-independence periods has enabled Latvia to make robust use of Cooperative Development programs, which need to be expanded. Latvia also plans to host an Eastern Partnership Summit during our EU Presidency in 2015.

History, economic interests, and Latvia’s foreign policy priorities also determine the geographic direction of her sphere of interest in the next, fifth circle – Central Asia and Afghanistan. Latvia’s embassies in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have been extremely successful as contact embassies for NATO, and have developed a special expertise and respect in the entire region.

Latvia’s role in the NATO ISAF mission in Afghanistan has produced a unique opportunity for long-term economic development as well. Working together with the US, Russia, NATO and regional countries, Latvia plays a key role in the Northern Distribution Network – the transport corridor for shipping NATO ISAF supplies from Latvia to Afghanistan. This has enormous future potential, for the moment that this network becomes a commercial transshipment corridor and connects to the planned New Silk Road, the door will open for Latvia’s road to the sixth and last circle, the Far East.

If until now such countries as China, Japan, Korea and India didn’t seem within reach of Latvia’s foreign policy grasp, then today they are very palpable. China and Japan have very active embassies in Riga and soon will be joined by South Korea. These countries are part of one of the most dynamic and rapidly growing regions in the world, and are looking with growing interest at Latvia’s strategic location in Northern Europe. The time has come to focus much more attention to this region, and determine how economic and political developments there can be aligned with Latvia’s long-term national interests. While some commentators have made much of the United States’ ‘pivot’ to Asia, it’s only natural that Europe does the same. Thanks to Latvia’s eastward tangent through the six circles of foreign engagement, this once distant region of the world is the logical next step in the long-term expansion of our international diplomacy.

In 2012, the Latvian Foreign Ministry took a bold (and necessary) step in providing the framework for Latvia’s ‘pivot to the Far East’.  It established an ‘External economic policy coordinating council’, which brings together the Foreign, Economic, Transportation and Agricultural ministries, as well as other state institutions.  This institutional model of cooperation is ideally suited to review and analyse just how Latvia’s economic interests, geostrategic location and existing logistical and transportation links to the east can be further developed to promote our national interests. Suddenly, the Far East no longer seems so far.

Latvia cannot embrace the world, but thinking strategically about her potential long-term interests in specific geographic directions and regions, Latvia’s foreign policy can play an essential role in promoting her national interests. Latvia’s moving in the right direction. But she must move faster, further and with a greater understanding of Latvia’s unique place in a globalized world.” Ojārs Kalniņš (2013),

Dewi Fortuna Anwar (2003), has put Indonesia's primary concentric circle on ASEAN countries, the South Pacific, East Asia, and multilateral diplomacy made up the second, third and fourth circles. Otherwise put, that in the existing Indonesian foreign policy concentric circles, ASEAN remains first, followed by Pacific countries like Australia, PNG, Timor Lester and New Zealand. The East Asian economies such as Japan, China and South Korea are third while the fourth and fifth are thematic multilateral diplomacy (NAM and OIC) and lastly, the multilateral diplomacy in the UN.

Hassan Saliu (2011), has aptly put it in real focus, the place of this theory in the analysis of Nigerian Foreign Policy;

    “There has been an increased interest in adopting the concentric circles in analyzing

Nigerian foreign policy since the time of Ibrahim Gambari as External Affairs Minister of

Nigeria between 1984 and 1985. He has often argued that more will be gained if scholars and policy-makers develop the layered approach to the study of Nigerian foreign policy. By this, it means that Nigeria’s interests in global affairs should be located in the physical Nigeria and her immediate neighours in West Africa, larger Africa, then the rest of the world and international organizations. This, Ibrahim Gambari and others who believe in the thesis of concentric circles argue, is the best way for Nigeria to go in protecting her interests.”

A new twist in the theory of Concentric Circles is that of the concept of beneficial concentricism. It is worthy of note that Bola A.Akinterinwa,(ed). (2012), employed this first, in his edited book, Nigeria’s National Interests in a Globalizing World: Further Reflections on Constructive and Beneficial Concentricism. It has twenty-four chapters. While we acknowledge the contributions of the scholars involved in the book project, the concept of beneficial concentricism still calls for further elaboration. Does beneficial concentricism constitute an abstraction of Nigerian self-preservation embedded in each layer of defined policy framework?

With this potential undertone of the new twist of the Concentric Circles theory, if fully developed it could become more useful to scholars in the study area of foreign policy analysis. It seems that the needed answer has been provided in an earlier work by Bola A.Akinterinwa (2004);

 “It discusses the proposal of a constructive and beneficial concentricism in which the

Ultimate beneficiary of Nigerian foreign policy endeavours will be 'Nigerians' and in which the strategies of implementation require the determination and prioritization of the interests at stake in each concentric circle… The epicentral question in the various concentric circles of interests is: how do we make Nigeria's foreign policy more constructive in design and beneficial in outcome to the good people of Nigeria”

Omotere Tope (2011), employed the Concentric Circles theory in his seminal work; He posits that,

“Analysis of Nigeria’s foreign policy shows that her leaders operate within four “concentric circles” of national interest. The innermost circle represents Nigeria’s own security, independence and prosperity and is centred on its immediate neighbours- Benin, Cameroun, Chad and Niger; the second circle revolves around Nigeria’s relations with its West African neighbours; the third circle focuses on continental African issues of peace, development and democratization; and the fourth circle involves Nigeria’s relations with organizations, institutions and states outside Africa”.

Indianembassy.org (2013), relates India's foreign policy as always regarding the concept of neighborhood as one of widening concentric circles, around a central axis of historical and cultural commonalties. From this point of view, it has always given due priority to the development of relations with South East Asia. In 1947, India organized the Asian Relations Conference. It chaired the International Control Commission in 1954 and was a major player in the organization of the Bandung Conference in 1955. Today, India is implementing a 'Look East' policy which is underpinned by important economic considerations. Some significant steps in the pursuance of this policy have been taken with the admission of India as a full dialogue partner of ASEAN and a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum, in 1996.  Introduction to India's Foreign Policy, Embassy of India – Washington, DC. Indianembassy.org. Retrieved 2013-08-17)

IV-           CONCLUSION

This study has carried out an exploratory analysis of the use of the concentric circles theory in the making and analysis of foreign policies of many States. It came out that this concentric circles theory has proven useful and convenient in the making of foreign policies, in the first instance and other study areas across the disciplines. From Mathematics, Sociology, Mass communication to International Relations. It was discovered that this theory has been well suited for the various purposes. Mention was made of an observable twist in the use of such theory and that is what has been described as Constructive and Beneficial Concentricism. Whatever this twist has added to our understanding of the theory, certainly it is still under construction. Finally, the study concludes that the concentric circles theory is apt to the study of foreign policy analysis which is a major study area in international relations.

REFERENCES

Bola A.Akinterinwa (2004); Nigeria's New Foreign Policy Thrust: Essays in Honour of Ambassador Oluyemi Adeniji NIIA. Lagos. 517pp

Bola A.Akinterinwa,(ed). (2012), Nigeria's National Interests in a Globalizing World: Further Reflections on Constructive and Beneficial Concentricism

                                                    Chapter 4. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, pp70-90.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar (2003),    “Megawati’s Search for Effective Foreign Policy”- in Hadi Soesastro, Anthony L. Smith, Mui Ling Han (eds), 2003),    

                                                                   Governance in Indonesia: Challenges Facing the Megawati Presidency.

Elmo Roper, (2013) “Communication Theories-Concentric Circle Theory”, http://search.tb.ask.com/search/redirect.jhtml/ .  Retrieved from internet 15   

             August 2013.

Ernest Burgess, (2013), Http://www.ehow.com/ , retrieved from internet 8 August 2013.

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                                        Constructive and Beneficial Concentricism. Ibadan: Bolytag International Publishers, (volume three).

Ibrahim A. Gambari (1989), Theory and Reality in foreign policy making: Nigeria after the Second Republic- Humanities Press, Pages 21, 205, 230

Indianembassy.org (2013), “India's Foreign Policy - 50 Years of Achievement”  

Ojārs Kalniņš, Raimonds Cerūzis, (2005), Latvia Today: Keystone of the Baltic.  Latvijas Institūts, - Latvia - 32 pages

Omotere Tope (2011), Assessment of Nigeria’s Foreign Policy under President Olusegun Obasanjo’s Administration, 1999-2007. EgoBoosters Books.

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