PERSONALITY APPROACH ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL
CONTESTS: PRELIMINARY CASE STUDIES OF THREE COUNTRIES’ GENERAL NATIONAL
ELECTIONS
BY
Patrick
Olufemi Adelusi PhD
John & James
Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)
London. United Kingdom
I-
ABSTRACT
Events surrounding the General elections in the UK in
the December 2019, the Presidential elections in Nigeria in August 2019 and
finally, the US Presidential Elections of November 2020, are now subject of
critical political analysis. This is a preliminary study taking on these cases.
Our approach is not comparative but descriptive but analytical. Boris Johnson
won the Conservative Leadership contest. He took over from Theresa May who had
to resign after her abortive attempts to get the UK out of the European Union.
Boris got a deal and eventually got elected on Brexit manifesto with a great
majority to the surprise of everybody. The way his personality propelled the
landslide victory over Labour Party and the cacophony of noises of the smaller
political parties draw our attention. The elections in Nigeria were majorly a
re-election of the sitting President from APC over his rival Atiku Abubakar
from the opposing PDP political party. In this electoral contest, the
personalities of the individuals on the opposing tickets seemed to have played
well into the results of the elections at the end of the day. The last case
study is the US Presidential elections between the incumbent President Donald
Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the
Democratic Party. This study has been arranged along four sections, namely,
Section-1 Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- Personality factor
in the 2019 UK national elections, 2019 Nigerian Presidential elections and the
2020 US Presidential elections. Section IV – Conclusion.
II-
INTRODUCTION
Events surrounding the
General elections in the UK in the December 2019, the Presidential elections in
Nigeria in August 2019 and finally, the US Presidential Elections of November
2020, are now subject of critical political analysis. This is a preliminary
study taking on these cases. Our approach is not comparative but descriptive
but analytical.
Boris Johnson won the
Conservative Leadership contest. He took over from Theresa May who had to
resign after her abortive attempts to get the UK out of the European Union.
Boris got a deal and eventually got elected on Brexit manifesto with a great
majority to the surprise of everybody. The way his personality propelled the
landslide victory over Labour Party and the cacophony of noises of the smaller
political parties draw our attention.
The elections in Nigeria
were majorly a re-election of the sitting President from APC over his rival
Atiku Abubakar from the opposing PDP political party. In this electoral
contest, the personalities of the individuals on the opposing tickets seemed to
have played well into the results of the elections at the end of the day. It
was a common knowledge in Nigeria and beyond her shores that the incumbent
President Buhari as he was before the 2019 Presidential Elections carried a
stoic and a spartan like discipline laced with an incorruptible credentials.
This individual character sketch played highly in his favour over that of his
challenger.
The last case study is
the US Presidential elections between the incumbent President Donald Trump of
the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic
Party. It has become public knowledge now that the US Republican Party as it
was known before fielding Donald Trump, died the day in 2015 when he was first
elected. What became observable during the first term of Donald Trump to the
2020 Presidential Elections, was Trump Republican Party. This is a credence to
our analytical framework in this study, the personality dominance of the
Republican Party.
This study has been
arranged along four sections, namely, Section-1 Abstract; Section II-
Introduction; Section III- Personality factor in the 2019
UK national elections, 2019 Nigerian Presidential elections and the 2020 US
Presidential elections. Section IV – Conclusion.
III-
PERSONALITY FACTOR IN THE 2019 UK
NATIONAL ELECTIONS, 2019 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE 2020 US
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Having the priviledge to
observe closely the 2019 UK General Elections, It was an interesting moment in
the history of the United Kingdom. There were events that took place within the
UK House of Commons culminating in the selection of the Winter date for the
elections at 7th December 2019. The events of high temperamental
debates between those whose lives and livelihood seemed to hang over the Brexit
failure and those that wanted the conclusion of the Brexit adventure. There is
no gainsaying the fact there were political casualties. Many of those party
representatives against Brexit could not secure their return to the House of
Commons. Shortly before the UK elections of 7th December 2019, these
opposition candidates on the one hand and some few members of the ruling
Conservative Party that changed political parties. Families and friends were
torn apart politically on the issue of Brexit.
The Brexit Withdrawal
Deal from the European Union had floored Theresa May, Boris Johnson was
successful. With this Deal in hand, Boris and his Conservative Party launched
their campaign. The campaigns had a catch phrase with Get Brexit done, and the
elections were won. The results were a landslide with a majority of 86 members
above the required parliamentary majority.
2019 Nigerian Presidential
Elections came on with 91 registered political parties. Two main political
parties dominated the field of campaigns and were regarded as the main or
rather frontline Political Parties. The ruling All Progressive Party and the
People Democratic Party were great contenders. The sitting President Mohammed
Buhari was seeking a re-election for a second term in office. He was not rated
by his opposing candidate Abubakar Atiku with good health and energy to
traverse across the expanse of the Nigerian territory canvassing for votes. To
the surprise of the PDP campaign group, the sitting President was able to visit
each of the 36 states capitals and some major cities; he touched more of the
States than his presumed younger and agile opponent. The main selling point or
campaign catch by the APC campaign group was the integrity and forthrightness
of its candidate President Mohammed Buhari. His opposing candidate Abubakar
Atiku had an albatross of corruption label that was trailing him. He fought to
shrug off many of these allegations through the entirety of the campaigns.
At the background of the
Nigerian elections of 2019 was the dwindling revenues from her main source of
revenues – the sales of crude petroleum, From the height of $140 per a barrel during the 16 years of the
administration of PDP party to $40 per
barrel under the administration of President Muhammed Buhari of the APC. The
results of the elections portrayed a geopolitical slant. Even though both
Presidential candidates are from Fulani ethnic group, the APC candidate garnered
most of his votes from the Northern zones-3 of them. He also had South West
zone added, that means 4 zones out of the 6 zones. The PDP had entrenched base
in the South East and the South-South zone.
The aftermath of the
elections is also under consideration here. PDP candidate cried foul of
malpractices in the elections. He accused the Independent Electoral Commission
of releasing a collated result different, from those stored in an expected
imaginary cloud drive that was capturing results from polling stations. He
nevertheless refused to concede defeat but took his case to the supreme court.
One noticeable fact is that while PDP was contesting the election results, the
party did not contest election results from states where the Party won.
The 2020 United States Presidential
Elections of 3rd November were a set of elections without any
comparisons to any other in the history of the country. Here was an incumbent
President Donald J, Trump of the Republican Party running against former Vice
President Joseph Biden Jnr. Of the Democratic Party. The incumbent President
had a luggage of negative perceptions by the dominant Media in the US. Dominant
Media in the sense that such a Medium is watched both internally and abroad.
The unpredictability of the character of the Republican candidate Donald Trump,
the sitting President had gone ahead of him in the campaigns. He came into the
campaign without thoughtful preparation on answering questions on his
stewardship of four years in the governance of the country. He substituted a
robust defence of policy combating Covid-19 pandemic for a divided United
States.
Republican Party
candidate Donald Trump while campaigning cast aspersions on the electoral
system for the elections, using words like rigged system. When States electoral
commissions charged with the organisation of the National Elections across the
States decided to incorporate voting by mails alongside on the spot electronic
voting, Donald Trump advised his supporters not to vote by mails. He decided to
declare illegal all votes that came in by mails, thus setting up his framework
for accusation for irregularities and fraud.
The elections took place
and the Democratic Party Joe Biden Jr. candidate won. He defeated Republican
Party candidate Donal Trump by 50.8% to 47.4% of the popular votes. In actual
figures, translates to Biden 78,043,331 votes to 72,696,948 votes for Trump. On
the required electoral college second level of electoral contests. Biden
floored Trump, by 306 votes to 232 votes. Donald Trump having a fixation on
being a bad loser, refused to concede the loss to the winner. He then went on
to challenge the outcome in over 60 court cases, by which he also failed
woefully. Till the swearing in and taking up of the new administration, Donald
Trump started a scorched earth policy of delegitimizing his successor in
office. He then encouraged resurrection against the Congress at its combined
sitting on the January 6, 2021.
IV-
CONCLUSION
Our preliminary finding indicates
that on each case studied, the personality of the main Politician contesting
and that is on the ballot paper for the elections demonstrates great influence on
the outcome of the elections. Boris Johnson has a winning streak with elections
in the UK. As a former journalist, he seems to have a control of sharp and
correct messages about political campaigns. Even political opponents agree that
he won hands down. The UK elections did not throw up post-election wrangling
and disagreement.
Nigerian electoral
contests reveal great post elections dissensions between the opposition
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar and the ruling All
Progressive Party (APC) candidate President Muhammed Buhari. The PDP levelled
allegations of electoral malpractices. He mentioned a hidden drive full of
election results not declared. His court challenge at the Supreme Court
revealed an absence of such Drive, in operation. Series of threats to make the
country ungovernable were made but nothing was able to destabilise the ruling
government and the winning candidate was sworn in to start a second term.
Finally, it is noteworthy
that when historians come around to tell us more about the nitty gritty of the
events that surrounded each of these elections, they will amplify the
underlying trait of personality influence on the direction and outcome of
election campaign as well as the import of executive powers.
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