TALIBAN RECOVERING POWER IN AFGHANISTAN: THE LIMITS OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION AND LESSONS FOR WARLORDS IN MULTI-ETHNIC COMPOSED STATE

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                           BY

 

 

 

                                       Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

                          John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

                                        London. United Kingdom

                                                    patrickadelusi@jjassociates.org.uk

http://www.olufemiadelusi.blogspot.co.uk/

                                        www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-olufemi-adelusi-a2139a76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I-                ABSTRACT

20 years of America led a coalition of the US and her allies invasion of Afghanistan, to combat the forces that incubate the terrorist ISIS group led by Osama Bin Ladin that launched the 9/11 terror attack on the World Trade Centre in the US, as well as remove the obviously medieval fundamentalism practiced by the Taliban group, came abruptly to an end by US President Biden troops pulling out in the month of August 2021 without any consultation with coalition members; following former President Donald Trump’s earlier agreement with the Taliban to do so. Afghanistan can stand as a metaphor for multi-ethnic post-colonial States struggling to find their feet to become a Nation-State in all aspects. Before 2001, the Taliban conservative group co-founded by a cleric was the governing party in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has 34 provinces. The Taliban’s march on Kabul the capital of Afghanistan started with its occupation of 9 of the 34 provincial capitals. It later overran the whole province including the Capital Kabul by the 18^th of August 2021. This was a surprise to the whole world. The freed imprisoned Taliban soldiers by the invading Taliban fighters as well as those pardoned former Taliban Soldiers that were absorbed into the 300,000 Afghanistan Army certainly could have ensured the rout of the National Army paving easy access to the Taliban troops. Great Britain decided to evacuate her 4,000 citizens from Afghanistan with the help of its 600 troops.  The United States too rushed back 3,000 troops to Shepperd the evacuation of her 6,000 citizens and Afghan interpreters to the US Armed Forces. There are indeed certain questions arising; Firstly, can the urge to have all American personnel back on US soil in time to mark the 20^th anniversary of 9/11 so that President Biden could take credit for closing the chapter be one of the determinant factors in the hasty Troops pull out? Secondly, Can the pressure of 2022 Mid-term Congress elections have posed by Trump’s misguided followers make the Republican Party candidates for these elections, a big consideration? and Thirdly, what role could the financial consequences of Covid-19 play in the implications of continued retention of US Troops in Afghanistan? and finally, what lessons can similar multi-ethnic State with preponderant Islamic population pick from Afghanistan and her Taliban overlords? To place our study properly, the issues arising will be looked at in 5 sections. The sections are Section 1- Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- National Interest and Limits of Foreign Intervention and Section IV- Lessons for War Lords in the Multi-Ethnic Composed States; and Section V- Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

II-             INTRODUCTION

Hardly has the analysis started that information came in that 13 US soldiers and about 170 Afghans were killed by an ISIS Khorasan terrorist bomb at one of the gates to the Kabul Airport, Afghanistan on the 26^th day of 2021. What a mess!!! What a dangerous way of demonstrating the limits of foreign interventions. 20 years of America led a coalition of the US and her allies invasion of Afghanistan, to combat the forces that incubate the terrorist ISIS group led by Osama Bin Ladin that launched the 9/11 terror attack on the World Trade Centre in the US, as well as remove the obviously medieval fundamentalism practiced by the Taliban group, came abruptly to an end by US President Biden troops pulling out in the month of August 2021 without any consultation with coalition members; following former President Donald Trump’s earlier agreement with the Taliban to do so. Afghanistan can stand as a metaphor for multi-ethnic post-colonial States struggling to find their feet to become a Nation-State in all aspects. Before 2001, the Taliban conservative group co-founded by a cleric was the governing party in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has 34 provinces. The Taliban’s march on Kabul the capital of Afghanistan started with its occupation of 9 of the 34 provincial capitals. It later overran the whole province including the Capital Kabul by the 18^th of August 2021. This was a surprise to the whole world. The freed imprisoned Taliban soldiers by the invading Taliban fighters as well as those pardoned former Taliban Soldiers that were absorbed into the 300,000 Afghanistan Army certainly could have ensured the rout of the National Army paving easy access to the Taliban troops. Great Britain decided to evacuate her 4,000 citizens from Afghanistan with the help of its 600 troops.  The United States too rushed back 3,000 troops to shepherd the evacuation of her 6,000 citizens and Afghan interpreters to the US Armed Forces.

There are indeed certain questions arising; Firstly, Can the urge to have all American personnel back on US soil by the end of the month of August 2021 in time to mark the 20^th anniversary of 9/11 so that President Biden could take credit for closing the chapter, be one of the determinant factors in the hasty Troops pull out? Secondly, Can the pressure of 2022 Mid-term Congress elections posed by Trump’s controlled followers make the Republican Party candidates for these elections, a big consideration? and Thirdly, what role could the financial consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic play in the implications of the continued retention of US Troops in Afghanistan? and finally, what lessons can similar multi-ethnic State with preponderant Islamic population pick from Afghanistan and her Taliban overlords? To place our study properly, the issues arising will be looked at in 4 sections. The sections are Section 1- Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- National Interest and Limits of Foreign Intervention; Section IV- Lessons for War Lords in the Multi-Ethnic Composed States; and Section V- Conclusion.

 

 

III-          NATIONAL INTEREST AND LIMITS OF FOREIGN INTERVENTION

United States of America’s national interest in the Afghanistan case was motivated by the search for terrorists that bombed the World Trade Centre and the US Pentagon the Defence Building. The foreign intervention occasioned by this element of US national interest forced her occupation of Afghanistan for 20 years long, from 2001 to 2021. As a new administration under President Joe Biden came in January 2021; The US started to fulfill an earlier arrangement entered into with the Taliban group by the 45^th erratic US President Donald Trump. The pressure on the new US president was immense right from the campaign grounds. Our sons must be brought back home! To fulfill this landmine order laid by the most undemocratic US President in recent years, President Joe Biden called the bluff off the arrangement by hastening to bring all the US Troops, her citizens, and helpful interpreters home before the 20 years anniversary of September 11, 2001, terrorists attack the US.

History would be kind to US President Biden on his interpretation of the nexus between US National Interest and the overreached limits of foreign intervention. There are certain issues that came into play here. The pandemic of Covid19 as it later became known, as well as the consequences of combatting it. The consequences were two-fold. Namely, a large number of deaths from Covid 19 traceable to the incompetent and lying incumbent of the White House President Donald Trump, and secondly, the indebtedness occasioned by the search for and funding of the vaccines against the disease. Losing so many people to death in the hands of Covid 19 more than the US lost in all former battles or foreign interventions combined. This reality is too close to call for US President Biden. This incumbent President had the providence of having served a long time at the US Senate, while there, He served as a Senate member, later Chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. President Biden also served 2 terms as President Obama’s Vice President with a portfolio on foreign relations. In essence, President Biden is well versed in what constitutes the US National Interests and is worth defending outside her shores. He can be given the benefit of the doubt that the nexus between US National Interests under his watch and limitation to the US foreign interventions and particularly the Afghanistan case became real when the shadow of twisted minded former President Donald Trump is hovering around to perch on 2022 midterm elections to intoxicate the US political and electoral environment with his continued denial of the 2020 US Presidential elections! Bringing in the US Troops from Afghanistan before the 20^th anniversary of 20/11 is to take the wind out of the sails of Donald Trump's election campaigns for his approved and nominated candidates.

 

IV-           LESSONS FOR WARLORDS IN MULTI-ETHNIC COMPOSED STATES

Multi-ethnic composed States have two opposing forces at work at every stage of their development. The centripetal and the centrifugal forces. Indeed, most of these States get organized into the Federal States either by earlier colonization or of necessity. Some others still cope with the rumblings within preferring to negotiate. It was revealed that the so-called Taliban in Afghanistan is composed of many warlords. The only common denominator for the prolonged cooperation and sustained fight was the US-led coalition occupation forces. Now with the price of regaining their country from the occupying forces, let the world be watching the transformation from rebel forces to a governing group.

Nigerian Federation put together by the British colonial power seems to be going through another of her seismic foundational challenges. The false ethnic tripod of Hausa, Igbo, and Yoruba has been soul-searching and pulling the nominal federal system to actualizing the real Federal System. Reports are coming into the open now about the British manipulation of Nigeria’s first national Census of 1959 (Harold and Carol Smith on BBC Radio 4, Documents). That the said General Elections were contrived by the British Government.

The Hausas of the Northern region is now denying their colonization by the Fulani who later gave themselves a compound name as Hausa-Fulani. The truth of the matter is that the North East is inhabited by the Fulani, the North West is inhabited by the Hausa, while the Middle Belters refused to be referred to as the Northerners. There are now 3 Regions of the South; namely, South West inhabited by the Yoruba, the South East inhabited by the Igbos, and the South-South inhabited by the amalgams of the minority groups. In total, there seem to appear now 6 geopolitical regions as described above. Each time, a President or a Head of State put at the helms of affairs of the Federation called Nigeria derails in his management of the diversity issues holding up the country, War Lords appear to drum songs of self-determination of their respective ethnic groups.

The international community, the UN, and its veto-holding powers, former colonial powers have gotten a new reorientation following the consequences of the Pandemic Covid 19. War Lords can no longer rely on positive help, support and encouragement. Ethiopia versus Tigris situation is very fresh. Ethiopia has Tigris as part of her Federation before War Lords arose in the Tigris region of Ethiopia. What initially started as a police action has snowballed into a deadly civil war. The UN Humanitarian Mission to Ethiopia has been given an ultimatum to leave the territory of Ethiopia. The Mission has been accused of supporting Tigris against Ethiopia, thus making the efforts of the Federal troops come to naught. It has been observed that sooner than later, multi-ethnic composed States with foreign occupation troops supporting the governments against her opposing ethnic War Lords will experience the same treatment meted to Afghanistan by the US.

Round Table Negotiation on all points without any preconditions accepted and implemented by all the various ethnic groups. In short, the evolving an acceptable format of management of the diversities inherent in such multi-ethnic composed States by all concerned would seem a more sustainable and better option.

V-             CONCLUSION

No force can overrun a determined people. The Taliban are Afghans. They have their sole interest in shaping their country in their own image, hard Muslim practices. They are not foreigners to Afghanistan. The US-led NATO forces had a goal which was to fish out the terrorists that intervened in the US through the 9/11 bombing and the spate of street bombings organized in NATO countries; this goal had been achieved by the 20^th year (2001-2021). It seems that the limit to such intervention has been underlined.

Covid 19 pandemic with the consequential high death rates first in the US and in the other NATO countries. The debt incurring expenditure on alleviation of the economic consequences of the Covid 19 Pandemic by all countries and more importantly the US and the NATO countries have led to a reordering of their priorities. Pulling out of troops from Afghanistan by the US falls under this dispensation. Foreign intervention to assist or fight insurgencies has been given a new format to reduce human loss and financial investment.

There is another limit to foreign interventions that are

 often overlooked or downplayed or totally ruled as non-consequential, that is the deep-rooted cultural practices and beliefs of nations within States. The Euro-American Democratic credentials flaunting LGBT, freedom to be naked as an individual fashion expression, and individual human rights. Single motherhood is supportive of partnership instead of marriage and heritage systems to mention just a few. Many non-Euro-American democracies are often affirming their rights to differ from the diktat- democracy being forced upon or being mirrored as the ideal and the only definition of a just and adequate form of democratic practices. The debacle of the Taliban recovering power in their Country is but the expression of their right to differ in their definition of a system of governance. Ironically, the 45^th President of the United States President Donald Trump mirrored anything but the antithesis of the values close to the heart of the ancient democracies!!