RUSSIAN SUBTERFUGE AND THE INVASION OF UKRAINE- CONSEQUENCE OF REDUCTION IN US GLOBAL INFLUENCE.

 

 

 

 

                                          BY

                           Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

                          John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

                                   London. United Kingdom

       patrickadelusi@jjassociates.org.uk       http://www.olufemiadelusi.blogspot.co.uk/

                        www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-olufemi-adelusi-a2139a76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I-               ABSTRACT

The world woke up to the multidimensional invasion of Ukraine by Russia on the 24^th of February 2022. Surprised only a few of us!!! Shared intelligence by the US with the ‘5 eyes’ but made public to expose Russian intentions; gave detailed step by step plan by Russian President Putin. A flurry of diplomatic efforts to dissuade Russia from the intended invasion was carried out by the UK, France, Germany, EU, and the US among others. Putin lied to these callers on him. He said he had no intention of invading Ukraine. He had gone against his promise. The methodology that suits this study is the Systems Analysis. The US political system threw up ex-President Donald Trump. A character that is anybody but a good representative of the Political Culture, Social and Economic System of the US. Reports established by the Executive and Congressional Committees of the US have established Russia’s extended help to candidate Donald Trump to win the Presidency of the US. Russia under Putin has been emboldened by the US policy of incremental withdrawal from global theatres of action and responsibilities. With Donald Trump's cozy person-to-person relations with his helper, Russia to the Oval Office in Washington, and his refusal to send US Congress approved Military and other economic assistance to Ukraine in time. Putin’s Russia has decided to fill the vacuum. In this study, an attempt would be made to analyze the Russian subterfuge and her invasion of an independent European country called Ukraine. The remote causes of Russian confidence to dream of recreating a sphere of influence in Europe can be traced first to Donald Trump’s US!  Secondly, to Ukraine’s geographic location on the route of the gas pipeline to Europe with the economic cost of $2billion gatekeeping charges by Ukraine from Russia, and Thirdly, attempt to shield probably from the early discovery of the corruption at the Presidency of Russian Federation. A thriving Ukrainian system will probably trigger the pressure of Russians towards a desire to emulate Ukraine. To carry out this analysis, the study has been divided into four sections: namely, First, Abstract, Second, the Introduction, thirdly, Remote and immediate causes of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Fourthly, Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

II-            INTRODUCTION

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on the 24^th of February 2022 after a flurry of diplomatic shuttles around President Putin of Russia by representation from Euro-American governments. The President of the United States had about two or more telephone calls to his counterpart Vlad Putin. US Secretary of State had meetings with the Russian opposite number on many occasions. French President visited Moscow and met President Putin. The UK Secretary for Foreign Affairs Liz Struss met her counterpart Lavrov on more than one occasion. German Chancellor visited President Putin, just mentioning a few of the callers on Russia to allow dialogue to prevail instead of violence. On each occasion, President Putin kept on saying that he had no intention of invading Ukraine!

The technology on point now has laid bare the issues about threats of and issues of war. Russia has been integrated into the world economy. Fear of a hidden enemy against Russia had receded. The cold war paradigms of analysis only serve a historical purpose here. This study will not travel along that route. Russia is the largest among the countries that made up the former Soviet Union followed by Ukraine, has been incorporated by European countries, Canada, and the United States, into the world economy, culture, sports, space, science technological cooperation as well as financial system of the world. In essence, the world outlook of peaceful relations and development encouraged these international system actors mentioned above to focus more on science-driven industrialization and market-driven trade relations. The now to be abandoned Russian gas pipeline to European countries is a great example of such a confident improved relationship.

When Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea, a seaport land part of Ukraine, there was a mooted outcry. This emboldens Russia to continue to stir uprising and rebellion among the majorly Russian ethnic populated South-eastern Ukraine. The amassing of over 175,000 men and weapons along this neighbouring border to Ukraine signaled a threat of invasion of the country by Russia. A flurry of diplomatic efforts to dissuade Russia from the intended invasion was carried out by the UK, France, Germany, EU, and the US among others. Putin lied to these callers on him. He said he had no intention of invading Ukraine. He had gone against his promise. The methodology that suits this study is the Systems Analysis. The US political system threw up ex-President Donald Trump. A character that is anybody but a good representative of the Political Culture, Social and Economic System of the US. Reports established by the Executive and Congressional Committees of the US have established Russia’s extended help to candidate Donald Trump to win the Presidency of the US. Russia under Putin has been emboldened by the US policy of incremental withdrawal from global theatres of action and responsibilities. With Donald Trump's cozy person-to-person relations with his helper, Putin’s Russia to the Oval Office in Washington, and his refusal to send US Congress approved Military and other economic assistance to Ukraine in time. Putin’s Russia has decided to fill the vacuum. In this study, an attempt would be made to analyze the Russian subterfuge and her invasion of an independent European country called Ukraine. The remote causes of Russian confidence, to dream of recreating the sphere of influence in Europe can be traced first to Donald Trump’s US!  Secondly, Ukraine’s geographic location on the route of the gas pipeline to Europe with the economic cost of $2billion gatekeeping charges by Ukraine on Russia and Thirdly, attempt to shield probably from the early discovery of the corruption at the Presidency of Russian Federation. A thriving Ukrainian system will probably trigger the pressure of Russians towards a desire to emulate Ukraine. To carry out this analysis, the study has been divided into four sections: namely, First, Abstract, Second, the Introduction, thirdly, Remote and immediate causes of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Fourthly, Conclusion.

 

III-         REMOTE AND IMMEDIATE CAUSES OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE IN 2022

Cold war paradigms of analysis want the world to accept the narrative about the borders drawn between the receding totalitarian remnants of the Soviet Union and the Euro-American systems. No one can deny history. What we have come to live with now since the fall of the Berlin wall in the fall of 1989 is the rules-based international order. The importance of this acceptance of rules-based international order by Russia, China, and India among other States operating in the international system is simply that the ‘bogey of the evil empire’ has receded in the minds of citizens of all countries. International Social, Economic, Cultural, and Political Relations now assume open cordiality and cooperation between Russia, the US, the EU, and other countries of the world. A snippet of Russia’s trade relations shows that ‘Russia’s oil and gas exports last year accounted for almost 40% of the government’s budget’ BCA Research said in a recent note. ’According to Russia’s central bank, crude and product revenue last year amounted to just under $180 billion, while pipeline and LNG shipments of Natural Gas generated close to $62 billion last year’.

One remote cause of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is the US’s incremental withdrawal from the international theatres of military engagement and influence. The withdrawal seemed to have started under President Obama. His idea seemed that let the US review and have a change in Military engagement overseas!!! Indeed, to cease to be the ‘policeman’ of the world. A position that upheld international peace in Europe and Asia. Putin’s Russia then calculated that having a pliant US President could hasten that perceived US withdrawal. The US under Donald Trump was anything but coordinated or stable both at home and in its international relations. Trump associated more with dictators and practiced more person-to-person dealings with them. Trump’s meetings with Putin showed that he lacked understanding of the traditions of the US in foreign relations. He openly disgraced US intelligence community!! Putin moved quickly to corner the supposed vacuum left by the US.

Another remote reason for Putin’s invasion lies in the supposedly $2 billion costs to Russia for passing the natural gas pipeline under Ukraine. By merging Ukraine with Russian Federation, the bill will become a nonissue and Russia will have net profits from doing business with Germany and the EU!

The attempt to shield probably the corruption at the Presidency of the Russian Federation from early discovery might constitute another remote cause for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. A thriving Ukrainian system will probably trigger the pressure of Russians towards a desire to emulate Ukraine. There is a democracy with its freedoms operating in the country. That Ukrainians are now used to free press, new trappings of social media, and cultural affinities developing in the country. Russians are not immune to the attractions brought by real democratic openness and commercial relations. Vladimir Putin was once KGB's maximum director/controller, then Russia’s President later her Prime Minister. He later transformed again to be Russian President a second time. He closed open democratic party participation. The young man that challenged him at the polls, he kidnapped him, pumped poisonous substance into his body. He was rushed to Germany just in time, His blood was cleansed of the poison. The young man returned to Russia again to contest the lordship of Putin. He has now been locked behind a cell in Russia now. This illustrates how Putin and those surrounding him are afraid of a breakdown of the Russian centrally controlled economy-driven Political system. The beneficiaries of the system are the corrupt few at the top. Putin has been reported to be in stupendous wealth. He has been observed to have spoken of his preference for a return to the Cold War International system. He has been threatening to put the nuclear arsenal on alert! He has even been saying that the sanctions rained against Russia are declarations of war!

The only perceived immediate cause of Putin’s Russia is Putin’s frozen cold war brain! He has long stayed in power. He was in demand during the ‘cold war’ and since the end of ‘cold war’ where new technology has changed many indices of economic, social, cultural, and military spheres, his influence has started to wane. Ukraine's democratic credentials could be intimidating to a closed economy represented by Russia. Ukraine’s 44 million determined population cannot be but a competitor to Russia.

IV-         CONCLUSION

The rules-based international order has served the people of the world. The UN system came alive through the observance of this international order. Russian citizens, Chinese citizens, McDonald's Franchises and other US companies, the EU companies, and the newly completed gas pipelines from Russia to Germany yet to be approved for use are real-life turnaround relations among countries and their citizens before the madness of Putin’s Russia invasion of Ukraine. There is hardly any country existing in the international system that harbours pure ethnic homogeneity. Inherited Borders of countries have been upheld for purpose of Countries' internal administration and peace. Forceful re-drawing of international boundaries is against the ‘rules-based international order’. An act of aggression is committed by any country that has tried to do so.

Russia is not a Superpower. Russia is a pretender to being a Superpower. Putin has been self-seeking. He wants Russia to be placed on the same table as the US. China has more indices of a Superpower than Russia. In the 21^st century, there are more weapons of war with built-in precision. Mass troops are no longer needed to achieve military objectives. Crude demolition of civilians otherwise referred to as soft targets by Russia is an indication of the level of her power status!! If Russia a medium power cannot use precision weapons to make her statement in Ukraine, a country that shares landed borders with her!!  Ukraine, an independent country with 44 million determined people should not be dictated to. Hear Putin, ‘military action could only be halted only if Kyiv ceases hostilities and fulfills the well-known demands of Russia’. It is likely that similar India/ Pakistan uneasy relations may soon develop between Russia and Ukraine. Russia can never subjugate Ukraine. It is better for Putin’s Russia to forget recreating the old sphere of influence. It will never happen again! Modern technology has outlined the non-relevance of such strategic thinking. It has just come off the propaganda mill that Putin’s Russia is no longer seeking a regime change in Ukraine. Who will ever believe whatever information comes from Putin’s Russia again? In fact, it is Russia that needs a regime change! Putin has overstayed his welcome. An erratic man Putin as President of Russia is as dangerous as when the US had to contend with Donald Trump. The big difference is that the US Political System checkmated Trump. Citizens are allowed to decide their leaders in free and fair elections at intervals. Even as we are analyzing Putin’s Russian invasion of Ukraine, former twice impeached US President Donald Trump is still deluding himself while misleading the members of US's second most important Political Party with a big lie that he won the 2020 US Presidential elections! He is alive and not hanged!! Can Putin’s Russia allow citizens to have access to real-life streaming of the invasion of Ukraine, on whose behalf the security of Russia is at stake? Closing of Russian electronic and Print media that are not government-controlled and arresting over 3,000 citizens protesting the invasion in more than 30 cities of Russia speaks a lot about Putin’s Russia.

Here comes another cold war period of the international system!!! The UN voting by 141 countries on Russia’s invasion demonstrated a misunderstanding of the issues at stake. Russian propaganda is talking of areas of influence that should be a no-go area. Putin is a spent force. He is going to be hunted for years to come. Russians’ avoidable deaths and more importantly avoidable distortions to world economic, sports, cultural, trade, and political systems will not be forgotten in a hurry. All the happenings are being recorded in coloured and by high-definition technological instruments.

Is there a way out of Putin’s Russian invasion of Ukraine? The strongman of Russia has become like a bull inside a chinaware shop, how-to guide him out of the shop without destroying everything inside the shop! He has been reported to have changed his goal of invading Ukraine. He no longer wants regime change! Who will take him at his word? He has been reported to have ‘assured’ leaders of States who had considered him a sane person by pleading with him to stay off war but to accept diplomacy, that he had no intention of invading Ukraine! The world now knows who Vladimir Putin is. There are already echoes of Putin’s boasting that “Sweden and Finland won’t join NATO either at his watch, adding that Russia will survive without the West, it is them who can’t survive without Russia” He was observed to have vowed.

A regime change in Putin’s Russia can be the ultimate answer. The wishes of the citizens of Russia are of secondary importance to Putin. He has made up his mind that he will prefer a new ‘Cold War’ international system where countries are divided along the West and East. Those nomenclatures have gradually been discarded for overlapping bilateral and multilateral relations.