PERSONALITY APPROACH ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL CONTESTS: PRELIMINARY CASE STUDIES OF THREE COUNTRIES’ GENERAL NATIONAL ELECTIONS

 

 

 

                                                            BY

 

                                           Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

                                      John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

                                                     London. United Kingdom

                                                     patrickadelusi@jjassociates.org.uk

 http://www.olufemiadelusi.blogspot.co.uk/

                                    www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-olufemi-adelusi-a2139a76

 

I-                ABSTRACT

Events surrounding the General elections in the UK in December 2019, the Presidential elections in Nigeria in August 2019 and finally, the US Presidential Elections of November 2020, are now subject to critical political analysis. This is a preliminary study taking on these cases. Our approach is not comparative but descriptive but analytical. Boris Johnson won the Conservative Leadership contest. He took over from Theresa May who had to resign after her abortive attempts to get the UK out of the European Union. Boris got a deal and eventually got elected on the Brexit manifesto with a great majority to the surprise of everybody. The way his personality propelled the landslide victory over the Labour Party and the cacophony of noises of the smaller political parties draw our attention. The elections in Nigeria were majorly re-election of the sitting President from APC over his rival Atiku Abubakar from the opposing PDP political party. In this electoral contest, the personalities of the individuals on the opposing tickets seemed to have played well into the results of the elections at the end of the day. The last case study is the US Presidential elections between the incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party. This study has been arranged in four sections, namely, Section-1 Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- Personality factor in the 2019 UK national elections, 2019 Nigerian Presidential elections and the 2020 US Presidential elections. Section IV – Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

II-             INTRODUCTION

 

Events surrounding the General elections in the UK in December 2019, the Presidential elections in Nigeria in August 2019 and finally, the US Presidential Elections of November 2020, are now subject to critical political analysis. This is a preliminary study taking on these cases. Our approach is not comparative but descriptive but analytical.

Boris Johnson won the Conservative Leadership contest. He took over from Theresa May who had to resign after her abortive attempts to get the UK out of the European Union. Boris got a deal and eventually got elected on the Brexit manifesto with a great majority to the surprise of everybody. The way his personality propelled the landslide victory over the Labour Party and the cacophony of noises of the smaller political parties draw our attention.

The elections in Nigeria were majorly re-election of the sitting President from APC over his rival Atiku Abubakar from the opposing PDP political party. In this electoral contest, the personalities of the individuals on the opposing tickets seemed to have played well into the results of the elections at the end of the day. It was a piece of common knowledge in Nigeria and beyond her shores that the incumbent President Buhari as he was before the 2019 Presidential Elections carried a stoic and spartan like discipline laced with incorruptible credentials. This individual character sketch played highly in his favour over that of his challenger.

The last case study is the US Presidential elections between the incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party. It has become public knowledge now that the US Republican Party as it was known before fielding Donald Trump, died the day in 2015 when he was first elected. What became observable during the first term of Donald Trump to the 2020 Presidential Elections, was Trump's Republican Party. This is credence to our analytical framework in this study, the personality dominance of the Republican Party.

This study has been arranged in four sections, namely, Section-1 Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- Personality factor in the 2019 UK national elections, 2019 Nigerian Presidential elections and the 2020 US Presidential elections. Section IV – Conclusion.

III-          PERSONALITY FACTORS IN THE 2019 UK NATIONAL ELECTIONS, 2019 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Having the priviledge to observe closely the 2019 UK General Elections, was an interesting moment in the history of the United Kingdom. There were events that took place within the UK House of Commons culminating in the selection of the Winter date for the elections on 7^th December 2019. The events of high temperamental debates between those whose lives and livelihoods seemed to hang over the Brexit failure and those that wanted the conclusion of the Brexit adventure. There is no gainsaying the fact there were political casualties. Many of those party representatives against Brexit could not secure their return to the House of Commons. Shortly before the UK elections of 7^th December 2019, these opposition candidates on the one hand and some few members of the ruling Conservative Party changed political parties. Families and friends have torn apart politically on the issue of Brexit.

The Brexit Withdrawal Deal from the European Union had floored Theresa May, Boris Johnson was successful. With this Deal in hand, Boris and his Conservative Party launched their campaign. The campaigns had a catchphrase Get Brexit done, and the elections were won. The results were a landslide with a majority of 86 members above the required parliamentary majority.

2019 Nigerian Presidential Elections came on with 91 registered political parties. Two main political parties dominated the field of campaigns and were regarded as the main or rather frontline Political Parties. The ruling All Progressive Party and the People's Democratic Party were great contenders. The sitting President Mohammed Buhari was seeking re-election for a second term in office. He was not rated by his opposing candidate Abubakar Atiku with good health and energy to traverse across the expanse of the Nigerian territory canvassing for votes. To the surprise of the PDP campaign group, the sitting President was able to visit each of the 36 states' capitals and some major cities; he touched more of the States than his presumed younger and agile opponent. The main selling point or campaign catch by the APC campaign group was the integrity and forthrightness of its candidate President Mohammed Buhari. His opposing candidate Abubakar Atiku had an albatross of corruption label that was trailing him. He fought to shrug off many of these allegations throughout the entirety of the campaigns.

In the background of the Nigerian elections of 2019 was the dwindling revenues from her main source of revenues – the sales of crude petroleum, From the height of  $140 per barrel during the 16 years of the administration of the PDP party to $40 per barrel under the administration of  President Muhammed Buhari of the APC. The results of the elections portrayed a geopolitical slant. Even though both Presidential candidates are from Fulani ethnic group, the APC candidate garnered most of his votes from the Northern zones-3 of them. He also had a South-West zone added, which means 4 zones out of the 6 zones. The PDP had an entrenched base in the South East and the South-South zone.

The aftermath of the elections is also under consideration here. PDP candidates cried foul of malpractices in the elections. He accused the Independent Electoral Commission of releasing a collated result different, from those stored in an expected imaginary cloud drive that was capturing results from polling stations. He nevertheless refused to concede defeat but took his case to the supreme court. One noticeable fact is that while PDP was contesting the election results, the party did not contest election results from states where the Party won.

The 2020 United States Presidential Elections of 3^rd November were a set of elections without any comparisons to any other in the history of the country. There was an incumbent President Donald J, Trump of the Republican Party running against former Vice President Joseph Biden Jr. Of the Democratic Party. The incumbent President had a piece of luggage of negative perceptions by the dominant media in the US. Dominant Media in the sense that such a Medium is watched both internally and abroad. The unpredictability of the character of the Republican candidate Donald Trump, the sitting President had gone ahead of him in the campaigns. He came into the campaign without thoughtful preparation on answering questions on his stewardship of four years in the governance of the country. He substituted a robust defence of policy combating the Covid-19 pandemic for a divided United States.

Republican Party candidate Donald Trump while campaigning cast aspersions on the electoral system for the elections, using words like rigged system. When States' electoral commissions charged with the organisation of the National Elections across the States decided to incorporate voting by mail alongside on the spot electronic voting, Donald Trump advised his supporters not to vote by mail. He decided to declare illegal all votes that came in by mail, thus setting up his framework for accusations for irregularities and fraud.

The elections took place and the Democratic Party Joe Biden Jr. candidate won. He defeated Republican Party candidate Donal Trump by 50.8% to 47.4% of the popular votes. In actual figures, translates to Biden 78,043,331 votes to 72,696,948 votes for Trump. On the required electoral college second level of electoral contests. Biden floored Trump, by 306 votes to 232 votes. Donald Trump has a fixation on being a bad loser, refused to concede the loss to the winner. He then went on to challenge the outcome in over 60 court cases, by which he also failed woefully. Till the swearing-in and taking up of the new administration, Donald Trump started a scorched earth policy of delegitimizing his successor in office. He then encouraged resurrection against the Congress at its combined sitting on January 6, 2021.

 

IV-           CONCLUSION

Our preliminary finding indicates that in each case studied, the personality of the main Politician contesting and that is on the ballot paper for the elections demonstrates great influence on the outcome of the elections. Boris Johnson has a winning streak with elections in the UK. As a former journalist, he seems to have control of sharp and correct messages about political campaigns. Even political opponents agree that he won hands down. The UK elections did not throw up post-election wrangling and disagreement.

Nigerian electoral contests reveal great post-election dissensions between the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar and the ruling All Progressive Party (APC) candidate President Muhammed Buhari. The PDP levelled allegations of electoral malpractices. He mentioned a hidden drive full of election results not declared. His court challenge at the Supreme Court revealed an absence of such Drive, in operation. A Series of threats to make the country ungovernable was made but nothing was able to destabilise the ruling government and the winning candidate was sworn in to start a second term.

Finally, it is noteworthy that when historians come around to tell us more about the nitty-gritty of the events that surrounded each of these elections, they will amplify the underlying trait of personality influence on the direction and outcome of the election campaign as well as the import of executive powers.