BY
ADELUSI.O.P
(PhD),
ABSTRACT
This paper is an exploratory study of the importance
of concentric circles approach in policy making and analysis. It established
the premise that concentric circles theory has been applied by scholars in
Foreign policy analysis and by some governments in foreign policy making.
Attempt has been made to examine such instances. Among the findings arrived at
are that the application of this theory facilitates a quick comprehension of
the main axis of the foreign policy of such State being analyzed; it also
underlie the importance that such a State attaches to the specified area of
interest. The study concludes that the concentric circles theory is apt to the
study of foreign policy analysis which is a major study area in international
relations. To undertake this task, the paper has been divided into four parts;
namely, the Introduction, followed by the conceptual clarification of the main
concepts in the theory, while the third part examines the case studies of the
application of the theory in foreign policy making and analysis. Conclusion
sums up the study in the fourth part.
I-
INTRODUCTION
Concentric Circles theory has come to stay in
socio-economic analysis. When the Sociologist Ernest Burgess first proposed the Concentric
Circle Theory in 1925. Http://www.ehow.com/ Little did he know that his theory which was
among the first to explain urban social structure and its evolution will expand
to other aspects socio-economic environment. One notable benefit of this theory
at its inception was that the theory was the first to explain that urban
structures arose naturally, without planning. Subsequent developments have made
the theory applicable in diverse areas of study.
This chapter is an exploratory study of the
importance of concentric circles approach in policy making and analysis. It
established the premise that concentric circles theory has been applied by
scholars in Foreign policy analysis and by some governments in foreign policy
making. Attempt has been made to examine such instances. Among the findings
arrived at are that the application of this theory facilitates a quick
comprehension of the main axis of the foreign policy of such State being
analyzed; it also underlie the importance that such a State attaches to the
specified area of interest.
The study concludes that the concentric circles
theory is apt to the study of foreign policy analysis which is a major study
area in international relations. To undertake this task, the chapter has been
divided into four parts; namely, the Introduction, followed by the conceptual
clarification of the main concepts in the theory, while the third part examines
the case studies of the application of the theory in foreign policy making and
analysis. Conclusion sums up the study in the fourth part.
II-
CONCEPTUAL CLARIFICATION OF THE MAIN
CONCEPTS IN THE THEORY
The
important question under this section is what are concentric circles? Many
answers come handy here. Concentric circles are circles that form within each
other around a common point. An example of a concentric circle would be the
ripples you see if you throw a small stone into a body of still water. http://mathworld.wolfram.com/ConcentricCircles.html .
Another definition has it that
concentric circles are circles that share the same center, axis, or origin with
one inside the other. A good example of concentric circles is the Olympics
logo. http://answers.ask.com/Science/Mathematics/
When circles are said to be
concentric it means that they have the same center point. Concentric circles
look like rings around a specific point.
The second most important question
then is what is Concentric Circles theory? According to Willow Wisp, ehow
Contributor, Http://www.ehow.com/, Concentric Circles Theory, one of the earliest in sociology,
predicts that urban social structures develop in concentric circles about a
city's center. Applying this theory, city planners, corporations and even
individuals can better use a city's resources.
History
has it that Sociologist Ernest Burgess first proposed the Concentric Circles
Theory in 1925. Http://www.ehow.com/ and that his theory was among the first to explain urban
social structure and its evolution. Noting that concentric bands of similar
land use seemed to arise without planning about the city center, Burgess argued
that such growth could be forecast.
It is on
record that while today newer theories better describe this evolution, this
theory was the first to explain that these structures arose naturally, without
planning. Http://www.ehow.com/
Elmo Roper developed Concentric Circles Theory with
regards to Mass Communication. Under this
theory, he posits that ideas penetrate to the whole public very slowly, and
that ideas move out in concentric circles from the Great Thinkers, to Great
Disciples, to Great Disseminators, to Lesser Disseminators, to Politically
Actives, and finally to the Politically Inert.
III-
THE
APPLICATION OF CONCENTRIC CIRCLES THEORY TO FOREIGN POLICY MAKING AND ANALYSIS.
Various
attempts have been made to apply this Concentric Circles theory to Foreign
Policy making and analysis. We need to take a cursory look at some of them:
“a country’s foreign
policy revolves around its national interests. Nigeria is not and cannot be an
exception to this. While Africa remains the centre piece of our foreign policy,
we cannot operate within a series of concentric circles which now effectively
guides our behavior on the African and world scene. The innermost of the
circles of national interests involves Nigeria’s security- territorial
integrity and political independence- and that of the neighbours of Nigeria.”
Ojārs
Kalniņš (2005), in examining Latvia’s
National Development Plan 2014-2020, affirms that the Foreign Ministry deals
with strengthening Latvia’s political and economic interests abroad. He adduced
that since Latvia’s Foreign Service cannot embrace the entire world, so it is
natural to divide that world into regions of priority.
Ojārs Kalniņš (2013), discusses those priorities of Latvia’s foreign
policy, he has described as concentric circles
of interest. He went ahead to identify six such circles. The first and closest circle
includes our immediate neighbours: Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus and Russia. The second circle is slightly
larger, and includes the Baltic Sea region and the Nordic countries. The
third circle, where he placed the European Union and NATO. The fourth circle: the EU’s
Eastern Partnership; Fifth
circle – Central Asia and Afghanistan, while the Sixth and last circle, is the Far
East. For an elaborate discussion of this, “ and the purposes of the Latvian
Parliament’s annual Foreign Policy Debates, he has chosen to isolate those
priorities by segmenting Latvia’s foreign policy world into concentric circles of interest. He has
identified six such circles.
The
first and closest circle includes Latvia’s
immediate neighbours: Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus and Russia. While
relations with all these countries are important economically, they are much
more complex and diverse politically. According to him they will remain a top
priority in 2013.
The second circle is slightly
larger, and includes the Baltic Sea region and the Nordic countries. Here he posits that Latvia
continues to develop good ties in such multi-lateral formats as NB8, the
Nordic-Baltic Council and the Council of Baltic Sea States. This year Latvia
hosts the Baltic Development Forum and in 2015 during Latvia’s Presidency of
the European Union, she plans to organize a special forum on the EU’s Baltic
Sea Strategy.
But
in 2013 most of Latvia’s attention will be focused on the third circle, where a special place has been reserved for the
European Union and NATO. Both organizations expand Latvia’s areas of
direct foreign engagement, although at the moment the greatest challenges lie
in the EU itself, and Latvia’s place in it. As always, Latvia’s strategic
partnership with the United States anchors her commitment to the transatlantic
relationship.
This
third circle also reveals the geographic direction of Latvia’s interest in the fourth circle: the EU’s Eastern
Partnership. Cooperating with and supporting such eastern neighbours as
Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova has always been a priority for Latvia. Direct
person-to-person ties in these countries dating back to pre-independence
periods has enabled Latvia to make robust use of Cooperative Development
programs, which need to be expanded. Latvia also plans to host an Eastern
Partnership Summit during our EU Presidency in 2015.
History,
economic interests, and Latvia’s foreign policy priorities also determine the
geographic direction of her sphere of interest in the next, fifth circle – Central Asia and
Afghanistan. Latvia’s embassies in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have been
extremely successful as contact embassies for NATO, and have developed a
special expertise and respect in the entire region.
Latvia’s
role in the NATO ISAF mission in Afghanistan has produced a unique opportunity
for long-term economic development as well. Working together with the US,
Russia, NATO and regional countries, Latvia plays a key role in the Northern
Distribution Network – the transport corridor for shipping NATO ISAF supplies
from Latvia to Afghanistan. This has enormous future potential, for the moment
that this network becomes a commercial transshipment corridor and connects to
the planned New Silk Road, the door will open for Latvia’s road to the sixth
and last circle, the Far East.
If
until now such countries as China, Japan, Korea and India didn’t seem within
reach of Latvia’s foreign policy grasp, then today they are very palpable.
China and Japan have very active embassies in Riga and soon will be joined by South
Korea. These countries are part of one of the most dynamic and rapidly growing
regions in the world, and are looking with growing interest at Latvia’s
strategic location in Northern Europe. The time has come to focus much more
attention to this region, and determine how economic and political developments
there can be aligned with Latvia’s long-term national interests. While some
commentators have made much of the United States’ ‘pivot’ to Asia, it’s only
natural that Europe does the same. Thanks to Latvia’s eastward tangent through
the six circles of foreign engagement, this once distant region of the world is
the logical next step in the long-term expansion of our international
diplomacy.
In
2012, the Latvian Foreign Ministry took a bold (and necessary) step in
providing the framework for Latvia’s ‘pivot to the Far East’. It
established an ‘External economic policy coordinating council’, which brings
together the Foreign, Economic, Transportation and Agricultural ministries, as
well as other state institutions. This institutional model of cooperation
is ideally suited to review and analyse just how Latvia’s economic interests,
geostrategic location and existing logistical and transportation links to the
east can be further developed to promote our national interests. Suddenly, the
Far East no longer seems so far.
Latvia
cannot embrace the world, but thinking strategically about her potential
long-term interests in specific geographic directions and regions, Latvia’s
foreign policy can play an essential role in promoting her national interests.
Latvia’s moving in the right direction. But she must move faster, further and
with a greater understanding of Latvia’s unique place in a globalized world.” Ojārs Kalniņš (2013),
Dewi Fortuna Anwar
(2003), has put Indonesia's primary concentric circle on ASEAN countries, the South Pacific, East Asia, and multilateral
diplomacy made up the second, third and fourth circles. Otherwise put,
that
in the existing Indonesian foreign policy concentric circles, ASEAN remains
first, followed by Pacific countries like Australia, PNG, Timor Lester and New
Zealand. The East Asian economies such as Japan, China and South Korea are
third while the fourth and fifth are thematic multilateral diplomacy (NAM and
OIC) and lastly, the multilateral diplomacy in the UN.
Hassan Saliu
(2011), has aptly put it in real focus, the place of this theory in the
analysis of Nigerian Foreign Policy;
“There has been an increased interest in adopting the concentric circles
in analyzing
Nigerian foreign policy since the time
of Ibrahim Gambari as External Affairs Minister of
Nigeria between 1984 and 1985. He has
often argued that more will be gained if scholars and policy-makers develop the
layered approach to the study of Nigerian foreign policy. By this, it means
that Nigeria’s interests in global affairs should be located in the physical
Nigeria and her immediate neighours in West Africa, larger Africa, then the
rest of the world and international organizations. This, Ibrahim Gambari and
others who believe in the thesis of concentric circles argue, is the best way
for Nigeria to go in protecting her interests.”
A new twist in
the theory of Concentric Circles is that of the concept of beneficial
concentricism. It is worthy of note that Bola A.Akinterinwa,(ed). (2012),
employed this first, in his edited book, Nigeria’s National Interests in a
Globalizing World: Further Reflections on Constructive and Beneficial
Concentricism. It has twenty-four chapters. While we acknowledge the
contributions of the scholars involved in the book project, the concept of
beneficial concentricism still calls for further elaboration. Does beneficial
concentricism constitute an abstraction of Nigerian self-preservation embedded
in each layer of defined policy framework?
With
this potential undertone of the new twist of the Concentric Circles theory, if
fully developed it could become more useful to scholars in the study area of
foreign policy analysis. It seems that the needed answer has been provided in
an earlier work by Bola A.Akinterinwa (2004);
“It discusses the proposal of a constructive
and beneficial concentricism in which the
Ultimate beneficiary of Nigerian
foreign policy endeavours will be 'Nigerians' and in which the strategies of
implementation require the determination and prioritization of the interests at
stake in each concentric circle… The epicentral question in the various
concentric circles of interests is: how do we make Nigeria's foreign policy
more constructive in design and beneficial in outcome to the good people of
Nigeria”
Omotere Tope (2011), employed the Concentric Circles theory
in his seminal work; He posits that,
“Analysis
of Nigeria’s foreign policy shows that her leaders operate within four
“concentric circles” of national interest. The innermost circle represents
Nigeria’s own security, independence and prosperity and is centred on its
immediate neighbours- Benin, Cameroun, Chad and Niger; the second circle
revolves around Nigeria’s relations with its West African neighbours; the third
circle focuses on continental African issues of peace, development and
democratization; and the fourth circle involves Nigeria’s relations with
organizations, institutions and states outside Africa”.
Indianembassy.org (2013), relates India's foreign
policy as always regarding the concept of neighborhood as one of widening
concentric circles, around a central axis of historical and cultural
commonalties. From this point of view, it has always given due priority to the
development of relations with South East Asia. In 1947, India organized the
Asian Relations Conference. It chaired the International Control Commission in
1954 and was a major player in the organization of the Bandung Conference in
1955. Today, India is implementing a 'Look East' policy which is underpinned by
important economic considerations. Some significant steps in the pursuance of
this policy have been taken with the admission of India as a full dialogue
partner of ASEAN and a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum, in 1996. Introduction
to India's Foreign Policy, Embassy of India – Washington, DC.
Indianembassy.org. Retrieved 2013-08-17)
IV-
CONCLUSION
This study has carried out an
exploratory analysis of the use of the concentric circles theory in the making
and analysis of foreign policies of many States. It came out that this
concentric circles theory has proven useful and convenient in the making of foreign
policies, in the first instance and other study areas across the disciplines.
From Mathematics, Sociology, Mass communication to International Relations. It
was discovered that this theory has been well suited for the various purposes.
Mention was made of an observable twist in the use of such theory and that is
what has been described as Constructive
and Beneficial Concentricism. Whatever this twist has added to our
understanding of the theory, certainly it is still under construction. Finally,
the study concludes that the concentric circles theory is apt to the study of
foreign policy analysis which is a major study area in international relations.
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Bola
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Bola
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