ACCOUNTABILITY FROM TWO PRESIDENTS - FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES: 2021 VERSIONS OF ACCOUNTABILITY.

 

ACCOUNTABILITY FROM TWO PRESIDENTS - FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES: 2021 VERSIONS OF ACCOUNTABILITY.

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                                                           BY

 

                                                            Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

                                      John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

                                                     London. United Kingdom

                                                     patrickadelusi@jjassociates.org.uk

 http://www.olufemiadelusi.blogspot.co.uk/

                                    www.linkedin.com/in/patrick-olufemi-adelusi-a2139a76

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I-                ABSTRACT

 When the January 6^th 2021 rampage against the Capitol Building hosting the Congress, Legislative arm of the United States took place under the watchful eyes of the obviously lame duck President Donald Trump on his way out, it shook the country and the whole world. That a Commander-in- Chief President Donald Trump will encourage a domestic terrorist attack against his country’s Legislative arm of government hosting his Vice President at that point in time leaves everyone shocked. That the mental health of President Donald Trump the US President was never questioned leaves more to be desired. Some members of his Republican Party paid allegiance to him and his monumental lie about winning an election which he lost by a landslide. The opposition Democratic Party called for bipartisan demand for accountability from the President. His party members doggedly refused to employ the main instrument for demanding that accountability which is the instrument of impeachment. Their argument being that President Donald Trump the US President was on his way out of office. Accountability was the key thing involved here. On the other side of the Atlantic, the former President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012) was accused of corruption and influence peddling and sentenced to 3 years in prison, two suspended, after being found guilty of attempting to bribe a judge. A Paris court heard that he used a mobile phone and a false name to gather confidential information from a judge. Here is a country dropping her convention that the country’s chief executive is above the law. In this preliminary study, these two cases are interesting to review. The underline factor is that the accountability issue is coming on 2021. More intriguing, in the early quarter of the year. To help our understanding, we are carrying out our tasks along 4 sections. namely, Section one -Abstracts, Section two- Introduction, Section three -Accountability from two Presidents: Cases of France and the US and Section four- Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

II-            INTRODUCTION

Democracy’s major pillar is the accountability of leaders to the electorate that elected them. Take away accountability, you are left with dictatorship. Leaders that take decisions without considering accountability. Another word for it is impunity. US President Trump encouraged resurrection against the Federal Government of which he is the head simply because he lost free, fair, and well-organized elections in a landslide. There are sanctions in the statute book, the US constitution. Debates were on; should a lame-duck President on his way out of the office, be impeached with additional sanctions of the future inability of participating in Political office? January 6, 2021storming of the Capitol Building at the behest of Donald Trump qualified as an impeachable offense and gross misconduct under the US Constitution.

This study examines two old democracies facing the implementation of the accountability clause of their democratic charter. France seems to have modified her age-old practices of having their Presidents immune from prosecutions to after office loss of immunity from prosecutions. Former French President Nicholas Sarkozy is reportedly not to be the only former French President to have been charged to court. That shows that the accountability clause is working well. There are obviously no controversies about the process and the actual events. The other interesting case study is that of former US President Donald Trump. He left office on January 20, 2021. Charges brought against him were conducted within the last few days to his departure and immediately as he left the office. This situation gave rise to controversies over the appropriateness of the accountability clause.

In this preliminary study, these two cases are interesting to review. The underline factor is that the accountability issue is coming in 2021. More intriguing, in the early quarter of the year. To help our understanding, we are carrying out our tasks along 4 sections. Namely, Section one -Abstracts, Section two- Introduction, Section three -Accountability from two Presidents: Cases of France and the US and Section four- Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

III-         ACCOUNTABILITY FROM TWO PRESIDENTS: CASES OF FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

 

 

France seems to have modified her age-old practices of having their Presidents immune from prosecutions to after office loss of immunity from prosecutions. Former French President Nicholas Sarkozy is reportedly not to be the only former French President to have been charged to court. That shows that the accountability clause is working well. There are obviously no controversies about the process and the actual events. The other interesting case study is that of former US President Donald Trump. He left office on January 20, 2021. Charges brought against him were conducted within the last few days to his departure and immediately as he left the office. This situation gave rise to controversies over the appropriateness of the accountability clause.

The US constitution made provisions for the accountability of its President. A practical understanding of these provisions relates to checking the Executive branch headed by the President by the Congress. The House of Representatives kicked off the accountability can with regards to President Donald Trump this January 2021. The lame-duck President Donald Trump waiting for an end to his 4-year tenure on January 20, 2021, was accused of instigating the insurrection against the members of the Congress. The Congress was holding a constitutional assignment on 2020 General President Elections with the Electoral College component of it. The Senate is required under the constitution to formally ratify results of the votes earned by both President Donald and his challenger Vice-President Joe Biden. The ratification is a formality, as Vice President, Joe Biden Jnr. had won more Electoral College votes than President Trump; 306 votes for Biden to 232 votes for Trump. While total general votes for Biden were 80,002,083 million to Trump’s 73,872,609 million votes.

As the exercise for the ratification of these votes by the Senate presided over by Vice President Pence was in progress, hooligans, domestic terrorists stormed the Congressional building referred to as the Capitol. Doors and windows were vandalized, offices of the Speaker of the House of Representatives and other offices were turned upside down. There were threats issued and, in the melee, about 5 persons inclusive of police officers died. The lame-duck President Donald Trump was caught on video broadcast shortly before the January 6, 2021 storming of the Capitol building by the domestic terrorists later identified as Trump supporters, making a speech like a rallying cry urging them to carry out the ‘abomination’. A Commander-in-Chief of the United States Armed Forces ‘commanding’ domestic terrorists to display terrorism against an important institution of the government of the United States of America.

On record, the House of Representatives impeached President Donald Trump as the first leg of the Congressional accountability of the President. The second leg took place shortly after the lame-duck President was eased off at the expiration of his tenure. In the Senate where the second leg of the Congressional accountability took place, the votes were 53 votes for impeachment to 47 votes against impeachment. By US constitutional provisions, only a 2/3 majority can fully impeach their President and ban him from any further future public office. The implication of these results is that now-former President Donald Trump was unsuccessfully impeached. The majority of the Republican Party Senators voted against his impeachment.

 

IV-         CONCLUSION

Former one-term President of France in the person of Nicholas Paul Stephane Sarkozy de Nagy-Bocsa 66 years might have nursed an ambition to make a comeback as a Presidential candidate again. This ambition disappeared on the first of March 2021 as he was sentenced to three years in jail, he became the second former President of France to suffer the same fate. The two of them were suspended for corruption. Indeed, it has been reported as a legal landmark for post-war France. Another former French President that was sentenced to jail too was Jacques Chirac in 2011. His offense was arranging bogus jobs at Paris City Hall for allies when he was Paris mayor. The accountability of the French President is working. There is no Political party opposing its course. Until the Trump Republican Party appeared in the US, all Political Parties- Democratic and Republican alike have always supported and embraced fully the provisions of the constitution on accountability of the country’s President. The same cannot be said of 2021 exercise.

Finally, democracy has two main pillars in its definition, free and fair choice of people by the people for the people. Secondly, accountability by the elected to the electors. The moment the accountability clause begins to be put under strain, the concept and practices of democracy no longer hold sway in the country. The US and France represented two different interpretations of the accountability of their presidents during the year 2021.

 

POST BREXIT GREAT BRITAIN AND COMMONWEALTH RELATIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC SOURCES OF COMMONWEALTH FOREIGN POLICY

 

POST BREXIT GREAT BRITAIN AND COMMONWEALTH RELATIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC SOURCES OF COMMONWEALTH FOREIGN POLICY

 

 

 

 

 

                                                            BY

 

                                                      Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

                                    John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

                                                             London. United Kingdom

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                    ABSTRACT                                                                                

Post Brexit Global Great Britain started her journey with the 2018 withdrawal Bill disengaging the UK from the European Union. There was one-year transition programme that was consummated by a comprehensive Post Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement Bill. The negotiations though dragged on, has a Trade and Cooperation Agreement Bill of 1,246 pages that was finally signed by the UK and the European Union, just in time for 2020 Christmas. In the preparation for the Global Britain Trade and Cooperation Policy, Theresa May, as Prime Minister paid scheduled visits to China, Kenya, South Africa, Canada, and Nigeria to mention but a few. Looking at the enumerated list, four out of the 5 countries belong to the Commonwealth. May’s visits were carried out with the consciousness of ‘soft’ politics and the reality of trade deals. Finally, under the leadership of Theresa May, there was a Commonwealth Conference of Heads of State and Government hosted by the UK. Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is yet to make visits to the Commonwealth countries. What is the connection between Post Brexit Global Great Britain and the Commonwealth? What are the internal sources of Global Great Britain Foreign Policy to the Commonwealth? To find answers to these immediate posers, our methodology is to examine the domestic policy inputs of the Foreign Policy outputs of the ruling Conservative Party towards Post Brexit Global Great Britain and the Commonwealth. For ease of analysis, the preliminary study will be looked at in 3 Sections. These are the Section 1- Introduction; Section 2-Domestic Sources of Post Brexit Global Great Britain Commonwealth Policy; Section 3-Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I-                INTRODUCTION

Post Brexit Global Great Britain has just begun to unfold. Nurses and Medical Doctors are in short supply. The shortage became an issue for the December 2019 national elections. Promises were made to up the supply to 60,000 manpower. Local Medical Schools are unable to meet up. COVIC-19 came along to accentuate the glaring gap existing in the Medical NHS of the UK. Building contractors and Restaurant and Entertainment Sectors are the other open gap to be filled by the supply demand pull of the economy. Trade and Cooperation Agreement Bill of 1,246 pages was finally signed by the UK and the European Union, just in time for 2020 Christmas. In the preparation for the Global Britain Trade and Cooperation Policy, Theresa May, as Prime Minister paid scheduled visits to China, Kenya, South Africa, Canada, and Nigeria to mention but a few. Looking at the enumerated list, four out of the 5 countries belong to the Commonwealth. May’s visits were carried out with the consciousness of ‘soft’ politics and the reality of trade deals.

 There was under the leadership of Theresa May, a Commonwealth Conference of Heads of State and Governments; and The Commonwealth presents another bloc where the Global Great Britain’s medicine and machinery are traded with little or no tariffs, tackle climate change and improve the health of the oceans. The Global Great Britain can join other members to develop through trade, pushing back against protectionism, respond to threats to the rules based international order and from cyber-attacks. Global Great Britain could also encourage upholding of common values which the Commonwealth organisation has always stood for – democracy, human rights, tolerance, and the rule of law. Global Great Britain’s influence could be felt by her push for the creation of fora for business leaders, young people, women, and the civil society, while focusing on issues such as improving trade, youth unemployment, education, and health.

Post Brexit Global Great Britain applies to join a new trading club the Pacific

Rim nations of 11 country bloc regarded to be one of the fastest growing free trade areas in the world which represent 13% of global income and 500 million people. The membership of this club includes the following, Australia. Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. Looking at the composition of this list, 5 members belong to the Commonwealth. There are 54 members of the Commonwealth from the 6 continents made up of 2.4billion people. What is the connection between Post Brexit Global Great Britain and the Commonwealth? What are the internal sources of Global Great Britain Foreign Policy to the Commonwealth? To find answers to these immediate posers, our methodology is to examine the domestic policy inputs of the Foreign Policy outputs of the ruling Conservative Party towards Post Brexit Global Great Britain and the Commonwealth. For ease of analysis, the preliminary study will be looked at in 4 Sections. These are the Section 1- Introduction; Section 2-Domestic Sources of Post Brexit Global Great Britain Commonwealth Policy; Section 3- Post Brexit Global Great Britain and the Commonwealth and Section 4-Conclusion.

 

II-             DOMESTIC SOURCES OF POST BREXIT GLOBAL GREAT BRITAIN COMMONWEALTH POLICY

What are the immediate and remote domestic sources of Global Great Britain’s Commonwealth Policy? Getting out of European comity of States leaves Great Britain without immediate club. Tariff free trade organisations for British manufacturing and machineries become immediate domestic source pushing for stable relationship, which a Commonwealth policy could advance.

The Commonwealth of Nations is a big club. There are 54 members of the Commonwealth from the 6 continents made up of 2.4billion people. 32 of the members are regarded as small States. It was mentioned above that Theresa May, British Prime Minister in the eye of the Brexit negotiations made efforts to revive British Commonwealth Policy ahead of her exit from Europe. Her physical journey to some selected Commonwealth countries, while reviewing established trade pacts. The Educational, Scientific and Cultural treaties binding all the 54 countries together as a bloc give the British a lee way to accentuate her trade and commercial relations as well.

Foreign and overseas students’ enrolment in British universities and higher educational facilities is an important factor. All British Universities compete for a large percentage of these Commonwealth and overseas students, and from which their incomes and funding are derived. Academic Lecturers are exchanged easily under the bloc’s agreements. Another likely domestic source Global Britain Commonwealth Policy is derived from the shortage of Medical Doctors and Nurses. There are yawning vacancies for Medical doctors and Nurses in the UK. These sets of professionals have enjoyed British based medical training. This allows easy flow and adjustment across the Commonwealth.

The Covid-19 Pandemic has added another level of domestic sources of Foreign Policy. Global Great Britain’s policy to the Commonwealth countries on this pandemic is that awaiting fulfilment. There are great expectations from the Commonwealth nations for extension of the Covid-19 vaccines. The UK has been reported to have signed a Trade Partnership with Ghana, a member of the Commonwealth of Nations in the month of March 2021 as published on the 2^nd March of 2021. This Partnership agreement with Ghana secures tariff-free trade and provides a platform for greater economic and cultural cooperation. Furthermore, it means Ghanaian products including bananas, tinned tuna and cocoa will benefit from tariff-free access to the United Kingdom.

 

III-          CONCLUSION

There is very great expectation from Post Brexit Global Great Britain. The Island of Great Britain is moving forward. Coming out of the 40 Years plus relationship with the European Union, Global Great Britain is evolving with a heart-warming ascendancy of a new reset United States; a very important ally of the Global Britain.

President Biden emerged victorious as the new occupant of the White House, the Pacific

Rim nations of 11 country bloc regarded to be one of the fastest growing free trade areas present itself also, and finally, the assured ready partnership ever presented by the Commonwealth of Nations. These are positive factors around which the Global Great Britain shall become renown.

When the Pandemic of Covid-19 is over, Global Great Britain will harness both internal and external sources of foreign policy to affirm her place in the world.

Post Brexit Global Great Britain started her journey with the 2018 withdrawal Bill disengaging the UK from the European Union. There was one-year transition programme that was consummated by a comprehensive Post Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement Bill. The negotiations though dragged on, has a Trade and Cooperation Agreement Bill of 1,246 pages that was finally signed by the UK and the European Union, just in time for 2020 Christmas. In the preparation for the Global Britain Trade and Cooperation Policy, Theresa May, as Prime Minister paid scheduled visits to China, Kenya, South Africa, Canada, and Nigeria to mention but a few. Looking at the enumerated list, four out of the 5 countries belong to the Commonwealth. May’s visits were carried out with the consciousness of ‘soft’ politics and the reality of trade deals. Finally, under the leadership of Theresa May, there was a Commonwealth Conference of Heads of State and Government hosted by the UK. Boris Johnson as Prime Minister is yet to make visits to the Commonwealth countries. When the Pandemic is over, Prime Minister Boris is likely to renew the visits to all these Commonwealth countries and probably negotiate various trade agreements with them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PERSONALITY APPROACH ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL CONTESTS: PRELIMINARY CASE STUDIES OF THREE COUNTRIES’ GENERAL NATIONAL ELECTIONS

 

PERSONALITY APPROACH ANALYSIS OF ELECTORAL CONTESTS: PRELIMINARY CASE STUDIES OF THREE COUNTRIES’ GENERAL NATIONAL ELECTIONS

 

 

 

                                                            BY

 

                                           Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

                                      John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

                                                             London. United Kingdom

 

 

I-                ABSTRACT

Events surrounding the General elections in the UK in the December 2019, the Presidential elections in Nigeria in August 2019 and finally, the US Presidential Elections of November 2020, are now subject of critical political analysis. This is a preliminary study taking on these cases. Our approach is not comparative but descriptive but analytical. Boris Johnson won the Conservative Leadership contest. He took over from Theresa May who had to resign after her abortive attempts to get the UK out of the European Union. Boris got a deal and eventually got elected on Brexit manifesto with a great majority to the surprise of everybody. The way his personality propelled the landslide victory over Labour Party and the cacophony of noises of the smaller political parties draw our attention. The elections in Nigeria were majorly a re-election of the sitting President from APC over his rival Atiku Abubakar from the opposing PDP political party. In this electoral contest, the personalities of the individuals on the opposing tickets seemed to have played well into the results of the elections at the end of the day. The last case study is the US Presidential elections between the incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party. This study has been arranged along four sections, namely, Section-1 Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- Personality factor in the 2019 UK national elections, 2019 Nigerian Presidential elections and the 2020 US Presidential elections. Section IV – Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

II-             INTRODUCTION

 

Events surrounding the General elections in the UK in the December 2019, the Presidential elections in Nigeria in August 2019 and finally, the US Presidential Elections of November 2020, are now subject of critical political analysis. This is a preliminary study taking on these cases. Our approach is not comparative but descriptive but analytical.

Boris Johnson won the Conservative Leadership contest. He took over from Theresa May who had to resign after her abortive attempts to get the UK out of the European Union. Boris got a deal and eventually got elected on Brexit manifesto with a great majority to the surprise of everybody. The way his personality propelled the landslide victory over Labour Party and the cacophony of noises of the smaller political parties draw our attention.

The elections in Nigeria were majorly a re-election of the sitting President from APC over his rival Atiku Abubakar from the opposing PDP political party. In this electoral contest, the personalities of the individuals on the opposing tickets seemed to have played well into the results of the elections at the end of the day. It was a common knowledge in Nigeria and beyond her shores that the incumbent President Buhari as he was before the 2019 Presidential Elections carried a stoic and a spartan like discipline laced with an incorruptible credentials. This individual character sketch played highly in his favour over that of his challenger.

The last case study is the US Presidential elections between the incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party. It has become public knowledge now that the US Republican Party as it was known before fielding Donald Trump, died the day in 2015 when he was first elected. What became observable during the first term of Donald Trump to the 2020 Presidential Elections, was Trump Republican Party. This is a credence to our analytical framework in this study, the personality dominance of the Republican Party.

This study has been arranged along four sections, namely, Section-1 Abstract; Section II- Introduction; Section III- Personality factor in the 2019 UK national elections, 2019 Nigerian Presidential elections and the 2020 US Presidential elections. Section IV – Conclusion.

III-          PERSONALITY FACTOR IN THE 2019 UK NATIONAL ELECTIONS, 2019 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND THE 2020 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Having the priviledge to observe closely the 2019 UK General Elections, It was an interesting moment in the history of the United Kingdom. There were events that took place within the UK House of Commons culminating in the selection of the Winter date for the elections at 7^th December 2019. The events of high temperamental debates between those whose lives and livelihood seemed to hang over the Brexit failure and those that wanted the conclusion of the Brexit adventure. There is no gainsaying the fact there were political casualties. Many of those party representatives against Brexit could not secure their return to the House of Commons. Shortly before the UK elections of 7^th December 2019, these opposition candidates on the one hand and some few members of the ruling Conservative Party that changed political parties. Families and friends were torn apart politically on the issue of Brexit.

The Brexit Withdrawal Deal from the European Union had floored Theresa May, Boris Johnson was successful. With this Deal in hand, Boris and his Conservative Party launched their campaign. The campaigns had a catch phrase with Get Brexit done, and the elections were won. The results were a landslide with a majority of 86 members above the required parliamentary majority.

2019 Nigerian Presidential Elections came on with 91 registered political parties. Two main political parties dominated the field of campaigns and were regarded as the main or rather frontline Political Parties. The ruling All Progressive Party and the People Democratic Party were great contenders. The sitting President Mohammed Buhari was seeking a re-election for a second term in office. He was not rated by his opposing candidate Abubakar Atiku with good health and energy to traverse across the expanse of the Nigerian territory canvassing for votes. To the surprise of the PDP campaign group, the sitting President was able to visit each of the 36 states capitals and some major cities; he touched more of the States than his presumed younger and agile opponent. The main selling point or campaign catch by the APC campaign group was the integrity and forthrightness of its candidate President Mohammed Buhari. His opposing candidate Abubakar Atiku had an albatross of corruption label that was trailing him. He fought to shrug off many of these allegations through the entirety of the campaigns.

At the background of the Nigerian elections of 2019 was the dwindling revenues from her main source of revenues – the sales of crude petroleum, From the height of  $140 per a barrel during the 16 years of the administration of  PDP party to $40 per barrel under the administration of  President Muhammed Buhari of the APC. The results of the elections portrayed a geopolitical slant. Even though both Presidential candidates are from Fulani ethnic group, the APC candidate garnered most of his votes from the Northern zones-3 of them. He also had South West zone added, that means 4 zones out of the 6 zones. The PDP had entrenched base in the South East and the South-South zone.

The aftermath of the elections is also under consideration here. PDP candidate cried foul of malpractices in the elections. He accused the Independent Electoral Commission of releasing a collated result different, from those stored in an expected imaginary cloud drive that was capturing results from polling stations. He nevertheless refused to concede defeat but took his case to the supreme court. One noticeable fact is that while PDP was contesting the election results, the party did not contest election results from states where the Party won.

The 2020 United States Presidential Elections of 3^rd November were a set of elections without any comparisons to any other in the history of the country. Here was an incumbent President Donald J, Trump of the Republican Party running against former Vice President Joseph Biden Jnr. Of the Democratic Party. The incumbent President had a luggage of negative perceptions by the dominant Media in the US. Dominant Media in the sense that such a Medium is watched both internally and abroad. The unpredictability of the character of the Republican candidate Donald Trump, the sitting President had gone ahead of him in the campaigns. He came into the campaign without thoughtful preparation on answering questions on his stewardship of four years in the governance of the country. He substituted a robust defence of policy combating Covid-19 pandemic for a divided United States.

Republican Party candidate Donald Trump while campaigning cast aspersions on the electoral system for the elections, using words like rigged system. When States electoral commissions charged with the organisation of the National Elections across the States decided to incorporate voting by mails alongside on the spot electronic voting, Donald Trump advised his supporters not to vote by mails. He decided to declare illegal all votes that came in by mails, thus setting up his framework for accusation for irregularities and fraud.

The elections took place and the Democratic Party Joe Biden Jr. candidate won. He defeated Republican Party candidate Donal Trump by 50.8% to 47.4% of the popular votes. In actual figures, translates to Biden 78,043,331 votes to 72,696,948 votes for Trump. On the required electoral college second level of electoral contests. Biden floored Trump, by 306 votes to 232 votes. Donald Trump having a fixation on being a bad loser, refused to concede the loss to the winner. He then went on to challenge the outcome in over 60 court cases, by which he also failed woefully. Till the swearing in and taking up of the new administration, Donald Trump started a scorched earth policy of delegitimizing his successor in office. He then encouraged resurrection against the Congress at its combined sitting on the January 6, 2021.

 

IV-           CONCLUSION

Our preliminary finding indicates that on each case studied, the personality of the main Politician contesting and that is on the ballot paper for the elections demonstrates great influence on the outcome of the elections. Boris Johnson has a winning streak with elections in the UK. As a former journalist, he seems to have a control of sharp and correct messages about political campaigns. Even political opponents agree that he won hands down. The UK elections did not throw up post-election wrangling and disagreement.

Nigerian electoral contests reveal great post elections dissensions between the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Atiku Abubakar and the ruling All Progressive Party (APC) candidate President Muhammed Buhari. The PDP levelled allegations of electoral malpractices. He mentioned a hidden drive full of election results not declared. His court challenge at the Supreme Court revealed an absence of such Drive, in operation. Series of threats to make the country ungovernable were made but nothing was able to destabilise the ruling government and the winning candidate was sworn in to start a second term.

Finally, it is noteworthy that when historians come around to tell us more about the nitty gritty of the events that surrounded each of these elections, they will amplify the underlying trait of personality influence on the direction and outcome of election campaign as well as the import of executive powers.  

NIGERIA A FAILED STATE OR A NATION-STATE IN THE PANGS OF STATEHOOD? A REVIEW ARTICLE

 

NIGERIA A FAILED STATE OR A NATION-STATE IN THE PANGS OF STATEHOOD? A REVIEW ARTICLE

 

 

 

 

 

                                                  BY

 

                                          Patrick Olufemi Adelusi PhD

                          John & James Associates (Bilingual Policy Scientists)

                                               London.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I-               ABSTRACT

 

An article titled “Failed State 2030 Nigeria- A Case Study” published as an occasional paper No.67 in February 2011 by 5 Colonels of the United States Air Force (USAF). Our study is majorly a review of these Colonels’ article. The background for their research lies in the fact that Nigeria is one of the topics that reflect long-term strategic thinking about technology and its implications for US national security.

The concept of “Failed State” as used by the researchers raised a lot of dust. Political Science scholars have a consensus about what constitutes a State. A nation-State constitutes a State. A state fails when it suffers “the loss of physical control of its territory; [its] monopoly on the legitimate use of force; the erosion of [its] legitimate authority to make collective decisions; an inability to provide reasonable public services; and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community”. A country that is in the process of nation-statehood is yet to be recognised as a State. If the United States with political and economic growth of 230 years is regarded as a State. Nigeria with 60 years of political and economic growth is in the process of becoming a nation-State and cannot qualify to be regarded as a State. If unstable political and economic institutions, coupled with deficit of infrastructures are hall marks of a nation-state going through of pangs of Statehood; then well-defined and established political and economic institutions herald a State. Nigeria cannot be described appropriately as a “failed State”. This statement is our working tool for our review exercise. Our tasks will be divided along 5 sections, namely, Section I-Abstracts, Section 2- Introduction, Section 3- Factors undermining Nigeria’s statehood, Section 4-Failed Statehood: Nigeria and USA of 2015-2020, Section 5-Conclusion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

II-            INTRODUCTION

A study carried out in 2011 with a 2030 pessimistic futuristic vision on Nigeria could be described as stereo type. Many of us studying political science in the 1980s were made to swallow the Euro-American centricity views reflected in their academic publications. The most notable one was the theory of Modernisation by David Apter. The subject for the testing of this theory was Ghana, an African country. Until the author repudiated this decades long theory inside our Post graduate visiting lecturer conference held in Bordeaux, France sometime in 1987 or thereabout, most of us budding scholars held on to this theory. The relevance of this is that simple. Here we go again with 5 Colonels from the US Airforce put out there their research findings on Nigeria. This has nothing to do with undermining the veracity of their findings but putting us on alert about these manipulations. If the world was not treated to a Trump administration 2016-2020 and with 25,000 lies, he fed the US citizens. 74 million still voted for him. He then continued till his very end with a great lie of winning an election which he lost by a land slide.

In this review article, it is our intention to limit our appraisal to two aspects of the work, namely, Nigeria in context; Defining Failure; and secondly, Nigeria in 2030: Paths to Failure. The main reason for restricting my appraisal to these two aspects lie in the fact that, every other chapters of the article are very replete with every day accounts of how an amalgamated entity has been coping with pangs of nation-statehood on her way to becoming a State.

 

 

 

III-         FACTORS UNDERMINING NIGERIA’S STATEHOOD

With regards to the first aspect, Nigeria in context: Defining Failure, reference was made to Nigeria’s History dubbed foundations for failure. The British colonization and the spread of Islam. There are two under currents about British colonization of Nigeria which these 5 authors did not capture in their analysis. How the amalgamated North and the South regions evolved to become Nigeria first in 1914 and later 1960. If 1914 mistake? continued till 1960 flag independence, where do we put reports coming out of the British archives both spoken by elderly civil servants that were involved in carrying out first rigging of the Census in favour of the North. This author once worked and lived in the North, he also read geography, on many of his journeys from the South to the North, his knowledge of geography that deposits that as you move from the rain forest to the savannah and later arid desert, population is expected to decrease. What we later felt released was the truth that geographic truth remains true, but the British falsified the census to turn geographic truth on its head. The elections that heralded the first government of Nigeria, where the NPC came on

top was rigged in favour of the North again, having confessed that the North was not ready for the independence unless they lead. The British did not want either the Western Region by itself, nor the Eastern Region by itself nor cooperation between the Western and Eastern regions to rule Nigeria. A Country formed with foundation of lies cannot be celebrated as a State going into failure. A pregnant lady has 9 months before giving birth, after which the baby needs attention. Nigeria with her 350 or so multi-ethnic groupings went through a civil war for 3 years and now having democratic government. It is true, the resources are not coming in as it used to be. Crude petroleum sales slumped under this government. The government is forced to carry out choices that are unpleasant but developmental. Nigerian population are being made to begin to make scales of preference and budgeting. With dwindling resources, demands are more than supply, old buried animosities are rearing their heads.

Another point raised was the role of and the spread of Islamic religion. It is common knowledge now that both the North and the South has followers of Islamic faith. There was no spread of Islam as a religion. Terrorist Islamic fundamentalism yes!! has been tearing the Northern states apart. There is no monolithic North again. Instead of this apocalyptic spread of Islamic religion, what we are observing is the prevalence of rogues under the clothes of herdsmen – rustling of cows. The rustling initially started within the Northern territory. It caused a lot of dislocation to security of local inhabitants and death with kidnappings. Katsina State, the home State of Nigeria’s President is not spared.  Most of the Southern non-Moslem States are not been attacked under one herdsmen attack or another. In some proven cases as reported by security operatives, armed robbers who may or not be Fulani are now terrorising road users. A consensus has been reached that once the cows and the herdsmen are organised into ranches in the Northern States, their home base, the insecurity linked to herdsmen would be over. There is however a suspicion that there are some designs to employ the herdsmen attacks as political instrument to send warning to opposing and rival parties on the need to maintain the status quo with having a Northern President. This has not been confirmed.

 

IV-         FAILED STATEHOOD: NIGERIA AND USA OF 2015-2020

Let me start my review of this 2011 paper on this theme of Failed Statehood by quoting their definition that, A state fails when it suffers “the loss of physical control of its territory; [its] monopoly on the legitimate use of force; the erosion of [its] legitimate authority to make collective decisions; an inability to provide reasonable public services; and the inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community.” The 2007 Failed State Index, compiled by the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, identified these indicators of a failed state. At the US end, with many Nigerian-Americans doing well in all aspects of the US economy and science, a study like this lays credence to a narrative that there must indeed be the failure of Nigerian statehood for these Nigerians to have left in a mass exodus to the US. I am not comparing British and the Australian Americans to their Nigerian-Americans, one thing is certain, people will move to places that suits them best despite the colour of their travelling passports.

The Nigerian constitution of 1999 is not a perfect constitution. It desires to be reviewed from time to time. Democratic experiments are still going on using this constitution. The levels of Political governance continue to be deepened. The States and the Federal Government are recognised and are used to independent budgetary allocations and development planning. During the operation of this constitution, A President widened the powers of the local government authorities by sending allocations due to that level of government direct to them without interference from the States as it used to be. Unknown to many people, each local government chairman can now budgets for its territory and plans development of the territory. While this was a great step, another giant stride came in the form of separate budgetary systems for the three main organs of governments, mainly the Legislative, Judiciary and the Executive. The implication of this is that a Legislature cannot be tied to the apron strings of the Executive. Please kindly note that what you have just read were aspects of the political growth taking place in Nigeria that some 5 Colonels saw as a failed State.

Many observers and citizens know that Nigeria has a great deficit of infrastructure. The tragedy is that those who compromised their opportunities to serve by corruptive influence has come to see what a non-corruptive government could achieve with meagre resources. Change is very difficult to make. Beneficiaries of corruption and corruptive system will always fight back or at best fight to describe any other attempts at achievement as failure.

There has also been demands for restructuring of the Federation as an amendment to Nigeria’s constitution. The central issues calling for restructuring has to do with State and Local Police, having to do with security. Nigeria is under policed. Attempts have been made by regions to have paramilitary outfits to assist the Police in its security duties until a formal legal structure comes to being. There are over 68 items that are under the Federal government which could as well have been delegated to the States and the Local governments.

All these issues are those grounding the around efforts at moving to a Nation-State. Nigeria is yet to be a State. She aspires to be a State, with recent democratic practices. The US is a State. She has practiced democracy for more than 200 years. She has ethnic tensions, but it is more of white supremacist racism. All her Political, Economic and Social institutions are strong and well tested. Infrastructure are well defined and developed though there is talk of maintenance and rebuilding. Nigeria has just taken a bold step of linking her South Western and Eastern regional cities by rail network in 2021. What was inherited was North -South rail links for produce from the North to the seaports in the South. Can such a country be described as failing? Such a country is climbing the ropes to becoming a Nation-State before being graded.

Can Nigeria be accused of not having the ability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community? Nigeria has participated in many UN sponsored police activities, observer status in areas of conflict. Nigeria has also assumed the Presidency of the International court of Justice at Hague. Recently, a Nigerian supported female has just been appointed as the Director General of the World Trade Organisation to mention but a few.

Where do we place the US of 2015-2020? The US is a State. She fulfils all the criteria enunciated in the definition of a failed state except for the last criterion. You may seem surprised! Domestic Terrorism made US to momentarily have the loss of physical control of its territory; [its] monopoly on the legitimate use of force; the erosion of [its] legitimate authority to make collective decisions; Let us look at them briefly, to our amazement, with a sitting President who swore to an oath to defend the territory of the US, an important branch of the Federal government lost its legitimate authority to make collective decisions at the Capitol because of invasion of the Congress building by thugs, terrorists orchestrated by her sitting President Donald Trump. With that incident until the new President takes oath of office, the US lost both the physical control of her territory as most state capitals are under security watch for domestic terrorism and she also lost her monopoly of legitimate use of force too. Looking for a failed State demands that one recognizes a State in her full functions and when she slides from such, will qualify her for the label a failed State.

V-            CONCLUSION

Two aspects of the main article titled “Failed State 2030 Nigeria- A Case Study” published as an occasional paper No.67 in February 2011 by 5 Colonels of the United States Air Force (USAF) were picked as highlights of our review. This is because what remains of the research paper can be best described as historical rehash of Nigerian etymological, political, and social compositions which can be found in public domain already. Going over them will not add any new thing to our discussion. These two areas are Nigeria in context: Defining Failure; and secondly, Nigeria in 2030: Paths to Failure. We draw the lines under what makes Nigeria a developing State, that is a country undergoing phases of nation building. What the citizens are going through are all pangs of this exercise. That the Democratic Institutions are not strong nor pervasive, the socio economic and commerce sectors still struggling to inter link and finally, that Nigeria needs time to evolve from an amalgamated 350 multi-ethnic groups, rigged census, rigged elections foundations to a Nation-State. How many years do we have to wait for this to happen? The answer to this can only be found in a conscious internal effort by the political and socio-economic elites evolving a consensus on all issues of national importance while been supported by a patient international environment that is not too critical but supportive. This is a far cry from being a failed State.